System Shock: Russia’s War and Global Food, Energy, and Mineral Supply Chains

May 9, 2022 | Amanda King and Claire Doyle
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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is sending shockwaves through global systems for natural resources like food, oil and natural gas, and critical minerals. But a recent Wilson Center event assessing the fallout of the conflict also looked to the deeper implications and lessons from the crisis. Current estimates place Russia’s daily revenue of oil, gas, and coal exports to Europe at between $800 million to $1 billion per day, with projected revenues for 2022 at $321 billion dollars, according to current trendlines.

In the short term, continued Elkind, the United States’ oil and gas industry will play an important role in stabilizing markets as global energy systems shift from a reliance on Russian oil and gas. Yet he added that oil and gas is not a panacea for energy security, neither in the United States nor anywhere else: “Where are most of the refineries and import-export facilities for oil and gas located? They are exactly in places that will be dealing with and trying to manage sea-level rise.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has revealed a landscape of interdependent sectors and compounding risk. Recognizing these links is a critical step toward building solutions. Policymakers must recognize that there are solutions available, the panelists agreed—And these solutions urgently need to be deployed to take advantage of a window of opportunity to avoid the worst outcomes.