Climate Security, Energy Security, and the Russia-Ukraine War

May 11, 2022 | Mark Nevitt
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Climate change is an existential crisis that requires an immediate, transformational shift away from fossil fuels — a point reinforced in stark terms in the IPCC’s Code Red climate report. In light of the Code Red climate report and Russian’s invasion of Ukraine, it is clear that these two crises — climate security and energy security — must be addressed together.

Indeed, the U.S. National Intelligence Council assesses that there are 20 such petrostates, defined as nations reliant on fossil fuel extraction for over half of their export revenues. 

The United States once imported over 60 percent of its oil, but it has since become a net exporter due in large part to the development of hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”) technology. The United States today is far more energy resilient than its European and NATO allies.Europe’s largest economy, Germany, cannot follow Biden’s lead and halt Russian oil and gas imports with a stroke of a pen — doing so would bring the German economy to its knees overnight. Other European nations (Hungary, Finland, Bulgaria) rely on Russia for more than 75 percent of their oil. It appears that Finland will seek NATO membership soon, doubling NATO’s land border with Russia.

Outside the Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Russian invasion will thwart the U.N. Security Council from making substantive climate security progress in the near future.