Climate May Not Directly Drive Conflict but It’s Critical for Building Peace

Apr 21, 2022 | Grazia Pacillo, Ana Maria Loboguerrero, Elisabeth Gilmore, Peter Läderach, and Tanaya Dutta Gupta
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Climate change isn’t a direct driver of conflict. Most scientists agree on this and it’s reflected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II Report. There isn’t a straight line between climate-related risks and conflict-related outcomes. But the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability report does acknowledge the relationship between climate and human security, which has been a matter of debate among researchers and policy makers. And it provides insights about how climate can, under certain conditions, amplify security risks, with implications for lasting peace. 

According to the climate change panel’s report, up to 3.6 billion people live in areas vulnerable to climate risks. These areas are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Latin America, and the Small Island Developing States.

Together, these factors make people vulnerable to multiple risks, and set “traps” that can last for generations. Climate-related risks cross boundaries too. They operate through supply chains, markets and resource flows. They affect multiple sectors including water, energy and food.

To argue for a climate security lens isn’t to say that climate is directly responsible for human security risks. Rather, it’s to emphasise how risks are distributed. The intention is to look at who’s vulnerable, who’s accountable and what’s unequal.