What Do We Know about Climate Change, Peace and Conflict?

Mar 29, 2022 | Tobias Ide
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The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the world-leading body assessing scientific evidence on climate change. Researchers criticised the previous 2007 and 2014 versions of the report for drawing on inadequate sources and for inconsistencies between the different chapters. The sixth assessment, by contrast, provides remarkably consistent key messages derived from high-quality studies.

The peace- and conflict-related part of the recent IPCC report also has its share of weaknesses and inconsistencies – which isn’t surprising for a document of this scope and volume. Chapter 4.3.6 on water-related conflicts, for instance, contains a much more conservative assessment of the climate-conflict nexus than the rest of the report.

It also does not consider several more recent studies on the topic and completely ignores the environmental peacebuilding literature (despite the latter’s focus on water). Likewise, several passages (almost) solely rely on evidence from a single study, an expert assessment published in Nature in 2019. While the study itself is decent, experts have also criticised it for ignoring critical approaches, qualitative research, and voices from the Global South (curiously, the IPCC itself acknowledges the lack of representation of scholars from developing countries as a problem).

Particularly in the context of major wars being currently fought in Ethiopia, Ukraine, Yemen and elsewhere, this knowledge can hopefully help to build climate resilient peace in the future.