USA: Systems Analysis of Climate Impacts, Crisis, and Fragility

Jun 27, 2023 | International Rescue Committee
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The IRC works to help people whose lives and livelihoods are shattered by conflict and disaster to survive, recover, and gain control of their future across the entire arc of crisis, including the climate crisis. From helping people face and survive sudden climate disasters and displacement, to accompanying them in their recovery efforts and strengthening them and their environments and systems to better deal with climate change and to mitigate migration risks.

Sitting within both the Emergencies and Humanitarian Action Unit and the Global Policy and Solutions team, Global Crisis Analysis supports IRC leaders to make effective, timely decisions in even the most complex circumstances, including as they advocate to external policymakers and stakeholders. Each year, the Global Crisis Analysis team also produces the IRC’s flagship Emergency Watchlist report, detailing the countries it believes are at greatest risk of a major deterioration in the humanitarian situation over the coming year. The team plans to produce regular thematic reports on the climate crisis and the changing nature of conflict in humanitarian settings, the first of which will focus on the climate crisis and its humanitarian implications in the Sahel region.

Sitting within the Airbel Impact Lab, the research and innovation arm of the IRC, and working in close coordination with the Economic Recovery and Development Technical Unit, the Climate Resilience Global Research & Innovation Priority (GRIP) team generates and adapts solutions to increase the resilience of agro-pastoral livelihoods in the areas hardest hit by climate change and conflict – with a focus on women, who are disproportionately affected by climate impacts and already face significant challenges in agriculture. Its solutions are localized to specific priority countries and will help to reduce poverty and food insecurity by enabling people and institutions to absorb, adapt and respond to climate shocks.

Climate change affects the entire world, but will have the greatest impacts on people in fragile contexts who have had the least role in creating it. In many countries affected by conflict and crisis, market systems and service delivery systems that populations rely upon are disrupted and break down. In agricultural communities, droughts, floods, and locusts are reducing harvests needed for both food and animal feed, depleting livelihoods and food security. Globally, the communities most vulnerable to climate change are therefore the least prepared to absorb, adapt and respond to shocks. Yet in spite of the acute need, climate financing and adaptation programs are risk averse and are not reaching those who need it most. The more fragile a country is, the less climate finance it receives and while solutions exist, they were developed for more stable contexts and rely on systems that are disrupted and breakdown in fragile contexts. Further, research points to links between conflict and climate change and recognizes climate change as a potential threat multiplier that can exacerbate drivers of conflict, violence, and migration. New and adapted approaches to humanitarian service delivery are urgently needed to increase resilience to the compounding impacts of climate and conflict shocks.

The Crisis Analysis team and Climate Resilience GRIP team are now working in collaboration to better understand the impact of climate change in countries experiencing humanitarian crisis, where environmental crises are co-occurring with other complex emergencies. It is interested in taking a systems level approach to clearly define the problem, identify promising solutions, and understand how different parts of the IRC can contribute to those solutions, including by advocating for the prioritization and resourcing of those solutions by donors, multilateral development banks, and more.

Scope of Work

With close oversight from the Climate Resilience GRIP Lead and the Global Crisis Analysis Lead, the consultant will engage IRC experts across the Crisis Analysis, Economic Recovery and Development Technical Unit, Climate Resilience GRIP, and country program teams to document and synthesize what it already knows and performs additional research as needed with a focus on two key questions along with a series of sub-questions. The consultant will make use of research and resources already developed by the IRC, including by consulting IRC staff members working directly with clients.

Question 1:

• What does the climate crisis look like in humanitarian settings and how does it differ from more stable contexts?
• The consultant will address three sub-questions and then draw on the answers.
• Which countries are experiencing humanitarian crises and are also significantly exposed to negative impacts of climate change?
• What do climate impacts look like in those countries (considering both shocks and long-term degradation of systems), and highlighting differential impacts on specific populations, particularly women and girls, and on communities in areas outside state control?
• What are the factors/gaps constraining response to climate change in those countries, considering humanitarian access, state capacity, levels of armed conflict, presence of armed groups, market systems functionality, access to financial resources and climate financing (for example in 2020, climate financing per capita for conflict-affected countries was a third of what other countries received - is this trend persisting and why?), etc?

The consultant will then leverage findings to create a systems summary diagram which illustrates how issues highlighted in sub-questions 2 and 3 are interacting, including where there are promising intervention points in the system.

The consultant will also leverage findings to sub-questions 2 and 3 to develop a framework for categorizing countries that are experiencing co-occurring climate and other crises based on their common characteristics (including common points of system disruption). This analysis will enable the IRC to: better articulate and advocate for the climate-related needs of its clients; identify and address national, donor, and multilateral policy barriers; and scale promising solutions across contexts that share similar challenges and opportunities for intervention.

Question 2:

• What are the types of climate action solutions that show promise in humanitarian settings?

The consultant will address two sub-questions:

• What are the climate-action solutions (service delivery models, financial mechanisms, risk mitigation strategies, etc) that show most promise in the different categories of countries identified in the framework developed in response to Question 1?
• Which countries identified in question 1 have readiness plans, National Adaptation Plans, Nationally Determined Contributions, and other national or subnational climate strategies or policies? Where has there been significant progress towards them?

Deliverables:

•  10 - 12 page report synthesizing findings
•  Systems summary diagram
•  Framework categorizing countries based on common-characteristics

IRC will support the consultant activities by:

•  Identifying key internal informants and providing introductions across the the Airbel Impact Lab’s Climate Global Research and Innovation Priority team and the Crisis Response Recovery and Development (CRRD) Department, including the Crisis Analysis Team (in the Emergencies and Humanitarian Action Unit (EHAU) and Global Policy and Solutions team), Technical Excellence, Regions, and Country Programs.
•  Sharing internal materials, research, and reports where relevant
•  Suggesting some external data sources for further research
•  Providing report templates
•  Scheduling weekly check-ins with Climate Resilience GRIP Lead to discuss progress, align, and answer questions.
•  Graphic design support for systems summary diagram (in the form of either a dedicated designer or access to a user-friendly online design platform)

Minimum Qualifications

Requirements:

•  University degree in humanitarian studies, conflict studies, peacebuilding, environmental science, climate change, international relations or relevant field of study.
•  5-7 years’ proven experience in conducting similar research / systems level analysis.
•  Demonstrable experience related to climate change policy and advocacy, and/or climate resiliency programming experience an added advantage.
•  Experience conducting consultations with various organizational stakeholders
•  Strong analytical and writing skills with proven experience in producing high quality research with ability to present complex information in a simple and accessible manner;
•  Excellent written and spoken English.

LOE: The expected LOE for the scope of work is a maximum of 40 days.