Water Wars: All Eyes Turn to Scarborough Shoal

Nov 4, 2016 | Chris Mirasola
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Two weeks ago Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte visited Beijing, where he signed a number of memoranda of understanding promising greater economic and military cooperation. Since that meeting reports have suggested that a potential deal was emerging that would enable Filipino vessels to return to traditional fishing grounds at Scarborough Shoal, a disputed reef 123 miles west of the Philippines that has been under Chinese control since 2012. Last Friday, Presidential Spokesperson Ernesto Abella confirmed that an informal deal had in fact emerged, stating that Filipinos “are now able to fish in the area without being intercepted.” The exact terms of what some call a newfound “modus vivendi” at Scarborough Shoal, however, have been much less clear.

Reports this week indicate that Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana was incorrect when he stated that, “there are no longer Chinese ships, Coastguard or navy, in the Scarborough area.” Satellite imagery from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, for example, shows numerous Chinese Coast Guard vessels around the shoal, at least one of which is blocking entry to the lagoon inside Scarborough Shoal. Filipino fishermen have also reported that though “there’s no more harassment,” they “can’t go inside” the shoal. To complicate matters further, two Philippine Coast Guard vessels were sent yesterday to “check on the condition and situation of our fishermen in the area and to sustain what we have started.”