What is the Future of the South China Sea?

Jul 12, 2016 | M. Taylor Fravel, Jessica Chen Weiss, Peter Dutton, Orville Schell, Edward Friedman, Tom Nagorski
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On July 12, a court based at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague rejected China’s sweeping claims over much of the South China Sea. The Philippines filed the case against China in 2013, arguing that some of China’s claims and activities violated the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The court ruled that a scattering of rocks and reefs in the contested South China Sea does not qualify for exclusive economic zones (EEZ), and stated that the nine-dash line, an imprecise demarcation including most the South China Sea, could not serve as the historical basis of China’s sovereignty claims. China refused to participate in the arbitration and has repeatedly declared that it will not accept the court’s ruling. In this ChinaFile conversation, experts share their reactions to the decision and thoughts about Beijing’s rejection of the ruling.