Oil, Greed, and Grievances in the Middle East and North Africa

Jul 12, 2016 | Axel Dreher and Merle Kreibaum
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Political scientists Indra de Soysa and Eric Neumayer, among many others, have shown that countries rich in oil have a higher risk of civil war – one aspect of the so-called “resource curse.” The circumstances that lead groups unhappy with the state to choose either a peaceful path, terror, or war are less well understood, however.

Abundance of oil increases the likelihood that groups engage in large-scale conflict, arguably in an attempt to gain political control over the oil. Political relations between the central and regional authorities are crucial in determining splinter groups’ weapon of choice. Groups in regions with autonomy from the central authority are more likely to fight for full independence through secessionist war if they expect the oil on their soil to fill the coffers of their aspiring state. Oil in autonomous regions thus increases the risk of larger-scale conflict relative to non-autonomous regions. In contrast, autonomy gives local governments the agency to resolve grievances caused by the extraction of natural resources. As a result, the oil-induced danger of terrorist attacks is lower in autonomous regions.