The Sahel: A Deadly New Era in the Decades-Long Conflict

Jan 17, 2024 | Héni Nsaibia
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The central Sahel states of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — all of which are now ruled by military juntas — are engulfed in a decade-long regional jihadist insurgency driven by al-Qaeda’s Sahelian branch Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel).

Across central Sahel, conflict fatalities from political violence increased by a staggering 38%, and civilian deaths by over 18%.

The military juntas that rule Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger are likely to continue to shape the region’s security policies in 2024. Their rise across the Sahel ushered in a new era, leading to the withdrawal of French troops, the termination of the United Nations peacekeeping mission to Mali, and the entrenchment of Russian mercenaries. Given current trends, these regimes’ militarized approach to counter-insurgency is likely to continue to fuel escalatory dynamics.

The jihadist insurgency remains at the center of the Sahel crisis and is the main cause of insecurity and instability. But while all eyes are on northern Mali, several regions in central Mali and Burkina Faso, as well as the Tillaberi region in Niger, continue to be the most affected by violence.