From Armed Conflict to Disaster Vulnerability


Publisher: Disaster Prevention and Management: An International Journal

Author(s): Marcus Marktanner, Edward Mienie, and Luc Noiset

Date: 2015

Topics: Programming

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Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to estimate the effect of armed conflict on the vulnerability to natural hazards.

 

Design/methodology/approach

– The authors employ panel estimates of disaster deaths on a lagged indicator of the presence of armed conflict.

 

Findings

– Disaster deaths following armed conflict are on average 40 percent higher compared to disasters that are chronologically detached from armed conflict events; a legacy of armed conflict accounts for roughly 14 percent of the approximately five million disaster deaths between 1961 and 2010.

 

Practical implications

– A global estimate of the relationship between armed conflict and disaster vulnerability can help disaster management planners identify policy priorities associated with disaster prevention and management.

 

Originality/value

– The analysis reinforces the findings in previous qualitative studies of a causal link between armed conflict and increased disaster vulnerability and provides a quantitative estimate of the average magnitude of this relationship.