Climate Security Study: Kenya
Publisher: adelphi and World Food Programme
Author(s): Emma Whitaker, Lucas Destrijcker, Johanna Caitlin Dieffenbacher, and Hannah Elisabeth Kurnoth
Date: 2023
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Governance, Livelihoods, Programming, Public Health, Renewable Resources
Countries: Kenya
Kenya ́s topography and environment are diverse, with Arid and Semi-Arid lands (ASALs) occupying over 80 per cent of the land area, creating unique challenges for the approximately 38 per cent of the population that live there. Agriculture is the main economic driver but is very vulnerable to climate shocks, and access to adequate quantities of nutritious food remains a challenge for many. Rapid population growth, stagnating agricultural production and inefficient food systems are undermining livelihoods and food security.
More recently, as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a surge in commodity prices, including for fertilizers, has been projected to further reduce GDP growth in Kenya, which risks putting an additional 1.4 million people below the poverty line (IFPRI 2022). As with much of the rest of the world, inflation in Kenya rose to 7.1 per cent in May 2022, with an estimated shrinking of GDP in 2022 by 0.8 per cent, with more than half of losses from the agricultural sector. The agriculture sector contributes to around 33 per cent of GDP (USAID 2022) and employs over 75 per cent of the workforce (FAO 2022a), therefore any decrease in agricultural production has a major impact on the unemployment rate, which is already high at over 40 per cent.