Vast and Hidden Urban Methane Emissions from the Russia–Ukraine War
Publisher: Nature Cities
Author(s): Zeyu Feng, Rong Hu, Yuqing Pan, Qianjian Xv, Jing Zhang, Qingyong Wang, Kaiqin Cao, Shufeng Liu, Alexander Baklanov, Jens Hesselbjerg Christen, Daniel Rosenfeld, John H. Seinfeld, Shaocai Yu, and Pengfei Li
Date: 2025
Topics: Conflict Causes, Weapons, Waste, and Pollution
Countries: Ukraine
Historically, cities have figured prominently in wars, including as targets. However, the impacts of warfare on the environmental signatures of urban systems remain less understood. Here the authors propose a comprehensive satellite-constellation-based framework to systematically assess methane emissions attributable to the Russia–Ukraine war. The authors find that this conflict overturns the conventional urban–rural methane emissions relationship, typically dominated by rural methane emissions. Urban methane emissions, initially just 21% of rural levels, rapidly rise to match rural levels after very few attacks and escalate to ~146%–588% of rural levels under extensive and intensive warfare, revealing urban systems’ greater vulnerability to warfare disruption. Civilian infrastructure, primarily residential buildings, emerges as a major emission source, matching military facilities in both emission intensity and frequency. These findings uncover an underappreciated, direct relationship between warfare, methane emissions and urban degradation. In the context of ongoing global conflicts, this relationship underscores the urgent need to monitor the greenhouse-gas signatures of besieged cities and highlights peace as a fundamental prerequisite for achieving climate-related Sustainable Development Goals.