Russia-Ukraine War Has Altered the Pattern of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Shipping in the Black Sea Region


Publisher: Communications Earth & Environment

Author(s): Yuanquan Xu, Pengjun Zhao, Tingting Kang, and Kun Qin

Date: 2025

Topics: Climate Change, Weapons, Waste, and Pollution

Countries: Russian Federation, Ukraine

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Recent geopolitical crises have reshaped global shipping patterns, profoundly impacting related carbon emissions. Here, we utilize automatic identification system data from March 2021 to February 2024 and the ship traffic emission assessment model to investigate changes in carbon dioxide emissions from shipping in the Black Sea region before and during the Russia-Ukraine war. We find that shipping carbon dioxide emissions in Ukraine’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone decreased by an average of 17.88% annually, while those in Romania’s and Turkey’s Black Sea exclusive economic zones increased by 36.30% and 16.08% annually, respectively. At the voyage level, shipping carbon dioxide emissions from maritime trade between Russia and the European Union obviously decreased, while those from maritime trade with certain Asian and Middle Eastern countries have obviously risen. The findings uncover the challenges to the climate change goal in the global shipping sector due to regional geopolitical crises.