From Environmental Stress to Instability: Using Tools to Identify Early Warning Signals for Peacebuilding

Date & Time
Jun 17, 2026 | 11.00 - 12.30

Participants
Chair: Penny Beames, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (Canada)
Caily Schwartz, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (United States)
Penelope Mitchell, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (United States)

Predicting environmental conflict remains aspirational, as both environmental change and conflict dynamics are complex and emergent. While links between extreme weather and conflict exist, they are indirect and highly context-specific. Conceptual tools and frameworks help distill these pathways, guiding problem diagnosis and intervention design. This panel showcases approaches that facilitate early warning and intervention opportunities, highlighting how such tools can interrupt pathways toward conflict and support proactive peacebuilding.

Tracing Indirect Links from Water Disturbance to Conflict Using the Pathways to Instability Framework

Penny Beames, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (Canada)

Communicating Intervention Points through the Lens of Critical Minerals and Agricultural Livelihoods for Peacebuilding in the Congo River Basin

Caily Schwartz, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (United States)

Environmental Stress, Illicit Agriculture, and Peacebuilding Opportunities

Penelope Mitchell, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (United States)