Communicating Intervention Points through the Lens of Critical Minerals and Agricultural Livelihoods for Peacebuilding in the Congo River Basin

Caily Schwartz, Global Water Security Center, University of Alabama (United States)

Increasing temperatures and changing precipitation patterns threaten economic stability among mining operations and agricultural livelihoods. In regions where farming and critical mineral mining coexist, competition over labor, energy, and arable land--compounded by policy gaps and governance challenges--can create opportunities that violent extremist organizations can leverage. Extreme rainfall events create dangerous mining conditions, leading to collapses while extreme heat days can lead to crop failure, both increasing financial burdens. Communicating how these impacts cascade throughout a system provides avenues to reduce grievances towards the state and mining companies, and thus, limits opportunities for regional instability. This analysis applies the Pathways to Instability Framework to assess environmental impacts and communicates actionable insighs. The goal is to distill complex dynamics into clear intervention points that can inform conflict-sensitive policy and peacebuilding strategies.