Green Minerals and Armed Conflict

Päivi Lujala, Geography Research Unit, University of Oulu (Finland)

The global shift toward a low-carbon economy has rapidly increased demand for rare earth elements and other technology-related minerals, raising questions about whether the extraction and export of these resources mirror the domestic conflict patterns historically associated with oil and other high-value natural resources, such as diamonds. Recent qualitative scholarship has shown some evidence of localized violence, environmental injustice, and human rights abuses linked to rare earth mining and other 'green minerals', especially in extraction hotspots such as Myanmar, Madagascar, and China. Large-scale, subnational quantitative investigations focused specifically on rare earths remain rare. To address these gaps, this research employs a cross-national time series framework drawing on subnational geospatial data on rare earth extraction sites and conflict event data. This study develops an analytical framework based on previous research on how natural resources impact armed conflict and on qualitative studies of rare earth minerals and green minerals. The analysis of conflict patterns applies spatial hazard models and difference-in-differences methods to estimate the timing, location, and causal effect of rare earth mine emergence on conflict occurrence and longevity. These approaches capture localized risk patterns and allow direct comparison to established oil-based mechanisms, providing insights into whether rare earth minerals are associated with higher new domestic conflict risks or transform existing ones. The findings offer essential evidence for debates in resource politics and environmental peacebuilding in the context of the green transition.