Environmental Migration Hypothesis in Yemen: Are Climate Refugees More Likely to Support Peacebuilding Initiatives?

Jeannine Valcour, Institute for Environmental Diplomacy and Security (United States)

European Institute of Peace Environmental Migration Hypothesis suggests that environmental changes, such as droughts or floods, can lead to large-scale migrations, which may cause conflicts in receiving areas due to competition over resources and social tensions. We test this hypothesis in the context of Yemen by harnessing a longitudinal survey data collected in 9 governates of Yemen during 2023-25. A convergent mixed methods approach is applied on both structured and open-ended survey responses from ~3000 respondents to test the hypothesis. Our preliminary analysis partially confirms environmental migration hypothesis as we find that host Yemini communities are more likely to support environmental policy and peace building action than the displaced communities. This empirical finding suggests that environmental peacebuilding practitioners, in addition to focusing on refugees and displaced, may also focus their preventive diplomacy efforts on host communities. Better capacity in host communities may reduce the likelihood of conflict when refugees arrive there.