Does Environmental Change Catalyze Peace or Conflict? Opportunities for Peacebuilding Action Discovered from Latent Class Analysis of a Survey of Yemenis

Asim Zia, Institute for Environmental Diplomacy and Security (United States)

This paper explores the potential and conditions for environmental peacebuilding in Yemen to inform local and international practitioners on the design and implementation of projects to maximize impact. Considering a practical perspective based on programming of environmental peacebuilding approaches, three questions guide this research: 1. What is the potential for environmental peacebuilding in Yemen? 2. What is the relative impact of political, socio-economic, demographic, and experience of war/conflict/displacement contextual factors on support for environmental peacebuilding? 3. How can environmental peacebuilding be leveraged most effectively? Building on data retrieved from three waves of a stratified random survey employed across nine Yemeni governorates during 2023-2025, the research applies latent class analysis and multinomial logistic regression modeling to address three research questions, test theoretical hypotheses within the context of these research questions and identify pathways for future peacebuilding action. This research contributes to the literature on reimagining environmental peacebuilding by providing actionable insights for practitioners and policymakers in both the environmental and peacebuilding fields.