Climate Variability and Landscape Change in North and East Syria: Implications for Displacement and Resilience

Purnendu Sardar, Lund University (India)

This study examines landscape-scale transformations in areas administered by the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES), with particular attention to land use, resource governance, and environmentally mediated political dynamics. Using satellite-based remote sensing data integrated with field surveys, we assessed environmental change across the region. Findings indicate a notable cropland expansion in 2019 on lands left uncultivated for more than two decades, coinciding with exceptionally high precipitation that year. Long-term climatic trends reveal rising summer temperatures since 2000, accompanied by an increase in extreme heat events. While mean annual precipitation remains stable, the frequency of intense rainfall days within the wet season has grown. Survey responses corroborate these climatic patterns, emphasizing recurrent droughts, extreme heat, and rainfall unpredictability. Additionally, remote sensing detected persistent tree felling between 2019–2024, reflecting conflict-affected communities’ reliance on firewood. Despite these pressures, consistent with Dinc and Eklund (2024), evidence suggests limited farmer migration.

This presentation is part of a proposed panel on "Climate Change, Community Governance, and Environmental Justice in Syria: Insights from the 3-year ECO-Syria Project."