Who Owns What in the South China Sea?

Jul 9, 2015 | David A. Welch
View Original

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi recently made the remarkable statement that flexibility on sovereignty over the Spratly Islands would shame China’s ancestors, and that if “the gradual and incremental invasion of China’s sovereignty and encroachment on China’s interests” were allowed to continue, China could not face its children and grandchildren. If we are to take this statement at face value (pun intended), then, as Ankit Panda has noted, part of what makes it remarkable is that it is such a clear expression of the importance of culture and identity in driving foreign policy. Not every culture worries about shaming ancestors.

It is possible, of course, that Wang’s statement was disingenuous and tactical. A game theorist might say that the statement was intended to signal credible commitment in China’s ongoing game of regional chicken both with rival claimants and the United States. One thing we know for sure is that leaders in Beijing care very intensely about retaining power and that they are petrified by the prospect of losing legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Chinese. A sure-fire way of losing legitimacy is to be seen retreating in the face of foreign threat or pressure, or backing away from defending China’s recently expanding set of “core” interests. Even if Wang was being disingenuous, on this view, he has effectively thrown the steering wheel out the window and dared everyone else not to swerve.