What Happens the Day after the Kurdish Referendum?

Aug 16, 2017 | Michael Rubin
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On September 25, Iraqi Kurds will head to the polls not only in Iraqi Kurdistan, but also in territories disputed between Erbil and Baghdad to vote in a referendum on whether Iraqi Kurdistan should become independent. Masoud Barzani, the region’s de facto president (his term expired two years ago but he refused to step down), has written that the referendum will be binding. There is little mystery to the outcome: Kurds will vote overwhelmingly in favor of independence. A state of their own has long been a dream for Kurds who feel they were unfairly denied independence in the wake of World War I. During a previous, non-binding referendum in 2005, almost 99% of Kurds voted in favor of independence. Diversion rather than national aspiration, however, may motivate Barzani. He has presided not only over Iraqi Kurdistan’s boom but also its bust. The region is over $20 billion in debt, its democracy is a distant memory, political patronage trumps merit, and young Kurds are suffocating within a culture of corruption. Court journalists and access-seeking academics focus more on covering up problems than resolving them.