Water Wars: Duterte Entrenches New Normal in South China Sea

Nov 23, 2016 | Chris Mirasola
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In a stark upending of the status quo, Philippine vessels have had access to traditional fishing grounds around Scarborough Shoal for the past month.  This breakthrough followed a State visit to Beijing in mid-October, where Chinese President Xi Jinping and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte finalized a raft of strategic and economic deals, including enhanced maritime cooperation. Though the Chinese Coast Guard still patrols the area and blocks access to the lagoon within Scarborough Shoal, analysis from Lawfare suggests that this modus vivendi complies with the Hague Tribunal’s arbitral award.

Presidents Xi and Duterte reaffirmed the deal during this weekend’s Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit. Xi also raised the hope that the South China Sea issue would be “transformed” into an opportunity for “friendly cooperation” between Manila and Beijing. Duterte seemed to make good on Xi’s offer later in the week as Manila announced a fishing ban within Scarborough Shoal’s lagoon.