South Sudan: Consultant - Institutions in Greater Mundri Counties - Phase 2 (STREAM II) Baseline Survey

Sep 4, 2023 | Mercy Corps
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South Sudan continues to face extremely high levels of food insecurity, social and political instability. A situation which is deepening due to endemic violence, conflict, climatic shocks resulting in extraordinary, localized flooding and droughts, inflation, and the economic impact of COVID-19 (OCHA, 2023). Despite South Sudan’s rich agricultural resources, four in five households skipped meals or ran out of food in both urban and rural parts of South Sudan, reflecting the severe impacts of the pandemic on the ability of households to meet their daily food needs (World Bank, 2021).

The Project

In response to these challenges, Mercy Corps partnered with SDC and AFD and has been implementing the Strengthening Resilience in Agriculture, Livelihoods and Markets (STREAM) Project (Phase 1 and 2) through local institutions in Mundri (Mundri East and West) and Koch in South Sudan since November 2020. The Project supports smallholder farmers in Western Equatorial and Unity states to move out of chronic vulnerability to food-shocks by partnering with the private sector to strengthen local markets and support farmers through climate smart agriculture and provision of farm inputs.

The first phase of the STREAM Project has improved the incomes and food security of over 3,672 (1,313 males and 2,359 females) smallholder farmers households and 2,470 (959 males and 1,511 females) non-farm enterprises and contributed to a revival of the agricultural markets in the target locations after decades of neglect and underinvestment. Leveraging on the impact of the Project and lessons learnt to date, Mercy Corps proposed second phase is focusing its interventions on specific market functions to sustainably move households out of chronic vulnerability and poverty by facilitating economic recovery and growth for smallholder farmers and non-farm microenterprises in vulnerable and conflict-affected areas of Greater Mundri Counties to directly and indirectly reach 35,000 and 35,000 participants respectively with system wide interventions. 

The three -year project dubbed STREAM II, includes include a 6-month inception phase combining continuing work with participants from STREAM I on market and financial linkages while also carrying out relevant assessments such as market systems, resilience, gender, and conflict analysis. 

The inception phase will also include mixed methods of data collection in support of an innovative research activity to evaluate the Project’s contribution to participants’ psychosocial capacities, and the role these capacities play in strengthening household resilience. These assessments and research activities will build on previous assessments conducted in STREAM I and will be used as a springboard for evidence-based adaptive management approaches. The Project will also carry out a detailed Organizational Capacity Assessment (OCA) and Organization Network Analysis (ONA) for the local partner AYA, and develop a capacity building plan for the partner for institutional strengthening for implementing activities in line with the localization agenda. STREAM II will use the Organization Capacity Index (OCI) on a quarterly basis to evaluate institutional strengthening while implementing the organization capacity building plan.
 

Project Objectives, Theory of Change and Proposed Approach

The STREAM II Project seeks to sustainably move households out of chronic vulnerability and poverty by facilitating economic recovery and growth for smallholder farmers and non-farm microenterprises in vulnerable and conflict affected areas in Greater Mundri counties. Mercy Corps believes that:  

IF chronically vulnerable households (majority are women led and youths) in greater Mundri have the knowledge, skills, and productive assets to address their household needs, and IF markets and local institutions provide an enabling environment for self-employment and employment, THEN households will have improved food security and resilience to future shocks and stresses.  

The project implementation approach is anchored on sustainability and scalability components of change processes that seeks to ensure market functions remains at the heart of the Project design. The bulk of STREAM II activities are purposely designed to support viable economic initiatives, driven by market actors, and local organizations. Hence, the design of the project avoids one-off activities with no prospect of sustainability, unless they have clear catalytic objectives, to accelerate and enable changes that break vicious aid-dependency circles and create safe spaces for experimentation. Its primarily methodological approach to implementation is a Market Systems Development (MSD)^[1] in crisis settings lens. The Project will employ a market facilitation model that enables target participants to meet basic needs, participate in markets, cope through local systems, and ultimately improve these local systems with a view to increasing household and market systems resilience, reward, innovation, and inclusiveness in the target value chains.  

The Project will work with agricultural and non-farm ecosystem partners including farmers associations, cooperatives, self-help groups, mobile network operators, financial institutions, producer groups, technology innovators, agriculture value chain players, government, and other key market stakeholders to build or strengthen their relationships that are positive, co-dependent, and mutualistic. STREAM II’s MSD approach is designed for markets in fragile environments, and the project’s foundational strategy is to be light-touch and facilitative, focusing on creating linkages between market actors and stimulating systems for sustainability. The project, thus, proposes to use subsidies as a last resort means to buy down real risks and risk perceptions of strategic partners and create safer conditions for them to experiment and try out new/better ways of doing things, behaving and investing. 

Alongside cash and voucher assistance (CVA), subsidies will be time-bound and play a catalytic role, to accelerate experimentation. Each subsidy will have a clear rationale (why is Mercy Corps using it instead of other options), an exit strategy (how is it enabling market actors to own the process of change), achievement milestones (what Mercy Corps expects from the recipients at specific points) and a withdrawal plan/schedule that is clear to the recipients and actors. The Project will emphasize continual market intelligence on the dynamics of value chain demand and supply, gaps in key supporting functions, the broader political economy, and pivotal secondary markets. 

STREAM II will identify and address the barriers and constraints that have excluded certain people and groups, in order for markets to be more inclusive and for economic opportunities to be more equitable and accessible – all of which directly reduce grievances related to economic marginalization that have fueled the unrest. Tailored to the specifics of the Mundri East, West, and Mvolo, additional guiding principles of its MSD approach include: emphasizing the role of social capital – the trust, networks, and linkages that are so important when informality dominates and traditional social ties may have been disrupted, as well as the importance of information and diversification – in linkages, supply sources, access routes – necessary to lower risk profiles and proactively deal with unexpected changes. As part of this approach, STREAM II will work through existing SHGs to implement and test an innovative package of interventions designed to promote the diversification of members’ social networks and build their psychosocial capacities. This in turn will facilitate more inclusive access to markets and advance resilience outcomes.                                                                                                                                            

Baseline Objective and Survey Questions

With financial support from SDC, STREAM II Project plans to conduct a comprehensive baseline assessment to understand the current participants’ exposure to Project activities, but also to measure how participants and households are leveraging their resilience capacities in the face of shocks and stresses and how this affects their outcomes in relation to improved food security in the Greater Mundri Counties. The findings from this assessment will benchmark subsequent monitoring and results measurement approaches including recurrent (annual) monitoring surveys^[2] that follow the same individuals and households over time, typically either triggered by a shock or stress (e.g., conflict or drought) or, are carried out at specific times of the year when households experience several shocks and stresses (e.g., during an agricultural lean season) to understand progress and resilience capacity of the project participants to inform project’s adaptation and maximized impact. This process will also be considered as the first round served as a baseline for key Project indicators and data points in addition to exploring the effects of several shocks and stresses that occur during the agricultural lean season.  

As a result, the baseline survey process will establish baseline values for key intervention indicators related to the STREAM II overall objective of facilitating economic recovery and growth for smallholder farmers and non-farm microenterprises in vulnerable and conflict affected areas in Greater Mundri counties, while capitalizing on opportunities to improve more efficient and inclusive productive agricultural inputs and output markets, expand inclusive economic opportunities through financial inclusion, stronger market orientation and economies of scale for non-farm enterprises and smallholder farmers, and increase their psychosocial capacities and social cohesion among communities and market actors to ensure the inclusion of traditionally marginalized populations.  

Baseline Assessment Approach, Questions. 

While these questions are not entirely definitive, the process to review and finalize the baseline assessment question will be participatory and consultative, informed by key findings from STREAM II Endline and previous assessments as well as discussions to leverage insights and contributions by the Project team with technical guidance from the consultant(s). 

The following are some of the proposed guiding questions to be explored by the study: 

General Questions:

1. What is the current status of key performance indicators related to STREAM II overall objective?
2. What are the systematic challenges and opportunities related to the project’s main objectives?
3. How can the Project leverage and maximize impact through its proposed technical strategies especially through effective implementation of its cross cutting technical approaches (Gender and Inclusion, Resilience and systems thinking, climate change and environment adaptions, and localization?)

In response to the above general questions, the baseline assessment is expected to explore further key performance areas and systemic factors in the process of establishing benchmarks. 

Proposed Baseline Approach

STREAM II proposes to establish a baseline for two types of indicators that will be used to establish its success:  

1.     Intervention-level (Quantitative) indicators. These indicators measure the progress of specific STREAM II interventions in achieving set income, inclusion, and climate-resilient outcomes. They will help the project to understand the performance of each intervention, thereby aiding decisions on whether to scale up, adapt, or drop the interventions in its portfolio. 

2.     Market system-level (Qualitative) indicators. These indicators measure changes in systems dynamics across the counties, incentives, social norms, services, and policy structures influencing small holder farmers, value chains actors, and other systems actors. They will help the project understand if its target market systems are becoming more competitive, resilient, and inclusive. 

The STREAM II baseline process will thus focus on the intervention-level and qualitative market system-level indicators (to be shared as in the finalized Log frame).

Proposed Systems Level Changes and Study Questions

The following table proposes the key system-level areas that the STREAM II baseline seeks to capture baseline information on. The broad questions will inform the systems indicators to be used to assess the contribution of the project during implementation:  

Proposed Intervention-Level Indicators 

The following table outlines the key intervention-level indicators that STREAM II baseline will capture baseline information on. These indicators are may be improved and may change during the baseline study. 

***NB -These indicators are not exhaustive and will be refined to ensure comprehensive assessment of intervention results areas as well as market system changes during the baseline process. 

3. Proposed survey Methodology

The baseline study will use a mixed-methods approach, including both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods to explore the above proposed survey questions and in generating baseline values to the above indicators. The following methods will be considered with guidance from the lead consultant:

1. Literature /Desk Review - The study will review relevant documents, reports, and data related to the STREAM II project in the selected value chains across the implementation counties.
2. Key informant Interviews - The study will conduct key informant interviews with ALL actors and stakeholders involved in implementation of STREAM II Project; including, government officials, private sector actors, small holder farmers and community representatives.
3. Focus group discussions - The study will conduct focus group discussions with selected value chain actors and producers, traders, and other actors in implementation counties to gather their perspectives on production and productivity especially around the selected value chains supported by the project.
4. Household Surveys - The study will conduct household surveys with a representative sample of households in the target implementation counties to gather data on the main project sectors, marketing, and trade.
5. Scoping Assessment and studies - Preliminary activities of the baseline survey process will involve extensive scoping assessments by the consultant to map out existing literature on a various performance metrics and contextual dynamics peculiar to the scope of implementation. This process will involve applying inclusion and exclusion criteria in identifying relevant information sources, analyzing and summarizing key findings in a scoping review report to inform the harmonized baseline survey process.

The study will predominantly focus on quantitative methodology collected using surveys and qualitative data generated to establish trends and understanding of the Project targeted participants and the various resilience capacities and outcomes aligned to the Project objectives. Analysis and survey results will be used to inform benchmarks outcome level indicators (as per the IPTT) and produce evidence on household resilience in the project target areas for internal and external learning and to adapt programming. Where applicable, the findings will also inform learning indicators for the STREAM II Project.

In addition, the assessment will also explore households’ experiences within the project intervention areas. This assignment will include a significant component of primary data collection across the selected counties of implementation.  Quality and timely delivery of this task will thus require good contextual understanding and ability to coordinate data collection along these counties. Should the consultant need to engage localized capacity to meet the objectives of this assignment, applicants MUST include an outline of their relationship with the local data collection firms or networks within each of the implementation counties.  In addition, this will Include details on how the consultant will engage these local firms and networks to ensure data quality during data collection.  This information is necessary to the evaluation process as Mercy Corps seeks to work with partners who have strong local connections and deep understanding of the communities it serves.  

Mercy Corps requires that interested applicants include within their application the following information: 

• Expression of interest and availability of the local data collection firms to engage on this baseline study.
• Experience of the local firms on data collection from STREAM II Implementation areas and the counties stated in this RFP.
• Lead Constants(s)/firm’s capacities in terms of enumerators recruitment, training and logistics management and how they can meet specific deliverables. On the minimum, this assignment will require full time commitment of a Lead and Co-lead consultants due to its urgent delivery timelines and thus, request that their CV accompanies their application. 

The Lead Consultant(s)/ firm’s role will focus on coordination of local data collectors, maintenance of the quality and technical leadership of training activities and during field data collection during baseline study. 

In addition to managing the data collection process, the lead consultant (international consultancy firm) will facilitate the analysis, report writing, and sense-making to finalize the baseline assessment report. 

The consultant (firm) will be expected to lead the development of the comprehensive inception report, Baseline survey tools, determination of the sampling design and representative sample calculation in consultation with the STREAM II Project team, MEL focal Points, the Regional MEL Advisor and the Resilience measurement HQ team alongside the Project team. 

Consultant Activities

To meet the consultancy objectives, the consultant will undertake the following tasks in the delivery of this assignment.

1. Conduct a desk review of relevant literature, including previous assessments, reports, and project documents related to STREAM II Project
2. Conduct local data collection within each target county. Communicate and coordinate with Mercy Corps on gaps in availability of local resource teams and areas of logistical support.
3. Develop a pre-analysis plan (PAP) that specifies the assessment and learning questions, indicators and variables used in the analysis, dummy tables showing disaggregation, sampling strategy and protocol, analysis approach, challenges, and limitations. The pre-analysis plan should emphasize a suitable sampling design recognizing the different sampling scenarios expected to demonstrate the longer-term effects of the project. The pre-analysis plan also documents the specifications to develop the syntax (or provides the syntax itself) needed to analyze the data to achieve the objectives outlined in this SOW.
4. Develop a data dictionary that documents the variable names, labels and value labels to be used by STREAM II for data collection in the subsequent recurrent (annual) monitoring surveys using the survey instrument developed under this SOW. This data dictionary will refer to the specific location of the variables in the subsequent RMS instrument.
5. Develop a robust survey methodology, sampling design and tools to conduct and generate a baseline report that summarizes the findings of the research and presents a set of clear and actionable recommendations to guide the design and implementation of the STREAM II Project. The report should also identify knowledge gaps and areas for further research and analysis, anchoring key learning areas for the project.
6. Design and conduct field surveys, including both quantitative and qualitative data collection methods, such as household and key informant interviews, focus group discussions, and observations. The survey will be conducted in the target implementation counties, with a focus on understanding the socio-economic and cultural context, with an emphasis on gender and youth dynamics, food production systems, market dynamics, trade flows, and climate risks and vulnerabilities.
7. Analyzing and interpreting the data collected to provide insights and recommendations on the current status and potential for the development of the selected value chains in the target implementation counties. This will include assessing the barriers and opportunities for smallholder and medium-scale market actors to improve their competitiveness, resilience, and profitability, as well as identifying the policy, institutional, and market system reforms needed to support these actors.
8. Present the findings and recommendations to stakeholders, including representatives from implementing partners, government agencies, private sector actors, and civil society organizations, and facilitate discussions and feedback to ensure that the recommendations are relevant, feasible, and widely accepted.
9. Facilitate a sense-making workshop to reflect jointly with the STREAM II Project team (in-country) on the baseline findings and their implication to the design and implementation of the project.
10. Complete the report and submit feedback; revise and finalize (note: the report should include background/introduction, methods, limitations, results and interpretation/discussion. STREAM II Project team and HQ team members will contribute substantially to finalizing the draft.
11. Providing technical support and guidance to the STREAM II Project team in the design and implementation of Phase II of the project, including support in the development of detailed work plans, monitoring and results measurement frameworks, and capacity-building activities for the Monitoring and Results Measurement and Project teams

Consultant Deliverables

By the end of the assignment contract period, the lead consultant will deliver (number of products per deliverable as listed below:

• Desk review report that summarizes relevant literature on STREAM II core objectives, market systems, and climate resilience in the project implementation areas. Due within 7 business days after contract signing.
• An inception report that includes the survey design, data collection methods, and recommendations for analyzing differences within the target implementation counties. Due within 10 business days after contract signing. The

Inception Report will include:

• A pre-analysis plan (PAP) that specifies the learning questions and hypotheses, indicators and variables used in the analysis, dummy tables showing disaggregation, sampling strategy and protocol, analysis approach, challenges, and limitations. The pre-analysis plan should emphasize a suitable sampling design recognizing the different sampling scenarios expected to demonstrate the longer-term effects of the Project through phased approach. The pre-analysis plan also documents the specifications to develop the syntax (or provides the syntax itself) needed to analyze the data to achieve the objectives outlined in this SOW.
• A data dictionary that documents the variable names, labels, and value labels to be used by Mercy Corps for data collection in the subsequent recurrent monitoring surveys using the survey instrument developed under this SOW.
• A Baseline report that summarizes the findings of the study and presents a set of clear and actionable recommendations to guide the design and implementation of STREAM II Project. The report should analyze the socio-economic and cultural context, food production systems, market dynamics, trade flows, and climate risks and vulnerabilities. The report should also identify knowledge gaps and areas for further research and analysis, anchoring key learning areas for the project. The report should include indicators for tracking and their benchmark values. Final report due no later than 15th September 2023.
• Sense Making Workshop Lesson Learnt Report that provides insights and recommendations on the current status and potential for development of the project objectives in the target implementation areas. The report should assess the barriers and opportunities for smallholder and medium-scale market actors to improve their competitiveness, resilience, and profitability, as well as identify the policy, institutional, and market system reforms needed to support these actors. The report will include a synthesis of baseline data as ground truthed in the sense making workshop and recommendations on adjustments to its operational plan. Due date to be set during contract signing. This report is to include;
• Context assessment and scoping report to summarize the findings and recommendations presented to stakeholders, including representatives from implementing partners, government agencies, private sector actors, and civil society organizations. The report should document the feedback received and ensure that the recommendations are relevant, feasible, and widely accepted as part of informing the baseline process and outputs.
• Technical support and guidance provided to the implementing partners in the design and implementation of Phase I of the Regional Livestock Project, including detailed work plans, monitoring and results measurement frameworks, and capacity-building activities for the MRM and Project teams.
• A Contract Close-out Report that includes a background/introduction, methods, limitations, results and interpretation/discussion. The report should incorporate feedback and revisions from STREAM II Project and HQ team members. Final approved report to be submitted by the last day of the contract agreement.

The Consultant(s) will report to:  

• Keneth A, STREAM II Project Manager supported by Joram N Kibigo, Regional MEL Advisor - AFRICA

The Consultant will work closely with:

Project Team comprised of: 

• STREAM II Project team o Senior Management Team – MC South Sudan.

Required Experience and Skills  

• Master’s degree or equivalent experience in social sciences, research, or related field
• At least 10 years of experience working in international development, including 5 years work in conducting research/evaluation for development projects.
• Strong methodological experience in quantitative research, including panel surveys.
• Experience conducting similar research/evaluation studies South Sudan.
• Detail oriented to ensure quality and consistency.
• Ability to remotely manage and coordinate with evaluation stakeholders and implementers.
• Strong work ethic and the ability to work well independently and as part of a team.
• Written and oral fluency in English required. 

Additional Requirements (preferred)

• Prior experience with baseline surveys for Market Systems Development activities
• Familiarity with Resilience measurement approaches
• Consultants/firms with experience in pastoral fragile areas in similar contexts, especially in the South Sudan highly preferred. 

Timeframe / Schedule 

The proposed activities and schedule for the consultancy will be finalized in consultation with the selected consultant(s)/consultancy firm. Overall, 20 working days have been provided for this assignment. The number of days required for each activity is an estimate; firms are welcome to suggest revised timelines in their concept notes. The consultant will charge Mercy Corps for the days used, not the estimated level of effort. Should the work require more time than the estimate, the consultant will agree on priorities with the STREAM II contact person and confirm changes to the consultancy work plan in writing. The anticipated completion dates are based on a consultancy agreement starting in August 2023. The total estimated LOE is 20 days. 

*** NB - Consultancy Activities, Schedule, and Estimated Level of Effort (the consultant is expected to reproduce this in the inception report with a more realistic and practical focus) 

Payment Schedule 

It is expected that consultants will be available to start in August 2023, with an initial meeting with the STREAM II Implementation team prior and leading to the actual start date. The consultants will then work through 22nd September 2023, when the final close-out report (refined to include donor’s feedback) is to be shared.  

**Note that Mercy Corps will only pay consultants for LoE (days worked as clarified in the schedule below) and materials delivered. 

The final invoice for services provided by the consultant should be provided to Mercy Corps immediately after the delivery of the final report after 22nd September 2023. 

The following are the key deliverables aligned to the deadlines and payment schedule:

    Deliverables                                                          Timeline                     Payment Terms

Final Close-Out Report with key findings and

Daily rate x # of consultant days worked

recommendations and updated Project             1

at time of deliverable submission Documents

Assessment and award of the assignment 

Mercy Corps will evaluate Technical and detailed financial proposals to establish fit and award the assignment based on technical and financial feasibility. Mercy Corps reserves the right to accept or reject one or all proposals received without assigning any reason and is not bound to accept the lowest or the highest bidder. Only those shortlisted will be contacted. 

Documents for Submission

In addition to the requirements specified above, interested evaluators (consulting firms/Individuals) should submit the following documentation for the proposal:

• Technical Proposal based on Mercy Corps Template — this needs to be detailed as possible, especially the analysis plan/methodology and any relevant techniques to increase the usability of the results
• CVs of proposed staff / team members noting identified roles and team lead as specified in team members’ roles.
• List of local firms worked with in South Sudan, Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia (name, contacts, who worked with in past). Confirm availability and ability to sub-contract if needed. Propose how firms would be used in each of the target corridors or within each country.  
• 1-2 example reports from similar work, with a preference for work done in South Sudan.
• Corporate Capacity statement (not to exceed two pages) detailing where they have worked, years of experience in the evaluation industry, office locations if any, and types of evaluation previously conducted.
• Three references for similar work carried out (name & contact information)

Selection Criteria

Trade-Off Method

Mercy Corps Tender Committee will conduct a technical evaluation which will grade technical criteria on a weighted basis (each criterion is given a percentage, all together equaling 100%). Offeror's proposals should consist of all required technical submittals so a Mercy Corps committee can thoroughly evaluate the technical criteria listed herein and assign points based on the strength of a technical submission.

Award criteria shall be based on the proposal’s overall “value for money” (quality, cost, delivery time, etc.) while taking into consideration donor and internal requirements and regulations.  Each individual criterion has been assigned a weighting prior to the release of this tender based on its importance to Mercy Corps in this process.  

The offeror(s) with the best score will be accepted as the winning offeror(s), assuming the price is deemed fair and reasonable.

When performing the Scoring Evaluation, the Mercy Corps tender committee will assign points for each criterion based on the following scale (the Project team should determine how they will assign points or categories for each firm submission):

[1] The MSD approach is a set of principles and practices aimed at achieving sustainable poverty reduction at scale. MSD is based on the fact that people living in poverty are also market actors. Consequently, making markets work better for them will improve their livelihoods and reduce poverty.   

[2] Scantlan, J., Sagara, B., Frankenberg, T., and Griffin, T. (2019). Resilience Measurement Practical Guidance Note Series 6:

Recurrent Monitoring Surveys. Washington, D.C.: The Resilience Evaluation, Analysis and Learning (REAL) Associate Award. Access at https://www.fsnnetwork.org/resource/resilience-measurement-practical-guidance-note-series-6-recurrent-monitoring-surveys