Climate Security and Instability in the Bay of Bengal Region

Apr 19, 2023 | Sarang Shidore
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The Bay of Bengal region faces many of the world’s deadliest cyclones, and warmer temperatures will enable storms to hold more moisture and cause more damage. On the other hand, increasing temperatures are already contributing to drought conditions and soil deterioration that put food security at risk in rice-growing regions. 

If climate conditions continue to worsen, four scenarios appear most likely. A further deterioration of Myanmar’s political and ecological situation could prompt mass emigration and destabilize the region. Stalled economic growth and increased domestic division in Bangladesh resulting from increasing natural disasters could threaten a similar emigration crisis.

More optimistically, the third scenario would see the region become more resilient to climate change, potentially under Bangladeshi leadership. The final scenario entails greater isolationism and heightened tensions between all of the littoral states.