Armed Conflict and Climate Change: How These Two Threats Play out in Africa

Nov 7, 2022 | Halvard Buhaug
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The world is falling miserably short of reducing carbon emissions in line with the Paris Agreement, a 2015 treaty to keep global warming well below 2℃. However, the link between climate change and conflict is weak when compared to the main drivers of conflict, notably poverty, inequality and weak governance. Instead, violent conflict in the context of a warming planet plays another and far more prominent role: it's a critical driver of vulnerability, which makes adverse impacts from weather extremes more likely and more severe. In other words, violent conflict weakens communities and countries so that they are not in a position to adapt to the changing world around them. 

Typical hotspots of such dynamics are found in the Sahel and rural East Africa. However, the true role of climate change in causing conflict in these settings remains disputed. How climate shapes peace and security depends on how societies respond to climate change. From this follows a key insight: in violent contexts, peacebuilding should be seen as the first and most crucial step toward addressing complex climate risks.