Research Consultant: Analyzing Intersection between Conflict, Climate and Hunger

Nov 14, 2020 | Concern Worldwide
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Concern Worldwide is Ireland's largest aid and humanitarian agency. Since its foundation 50 years ago it has worked in 50 countries.

Concern Worldwide has developed an international advocacy strategy which will guide the advocacy work of the organisation until 2025. Key to that strategy will be a thematic focus on hunger, and in particular, how conflict and climate change impact upon, and intersect with, global hunger. In 2020,emergencies caused by the locust swarm in East Africa and the COVID-19 pandemic are already exacerbating hunger and its structural causes in affected areas. These and other significant developments in 2020 have presented major potential setbacks in the progress towards ensuring food and nutrition security and in achieving SDG2 by 2030.

Global hunger is on the rise, with 690 million people undernourished at the beginning of 2019. (GHI 2020, SOFI 2020). This means that roughly 8.9% of the world’s population are currently hungry. Before COVID-19, 135 million people were already acutely food insecure, across 55 food crises globally. WFP now predicts that the number of acutely food insecure people could double to 265 million in 2020 (IPC/CH 3 or worse) as a result of COVID-19, as already unequal and inefficient food systems and supply chains, as well as livelihoods, education and remittance flows continue to be disrupted. Africa is disproportionately affected, with over half of those suffering acute food insecurity located on the continent, and this trajectory is only set to worsen.

Such extreme and growing rates of hunger is not an inexplicable phenomena. Conflict and climate shocks, along with economic turbulence, were yet again identified as the key drivers of hunger in 2020. Indeed, most of the world’s worst food crises of 2020 are in countries affected by both conflict and climate shocks including – Yemen, DRC, Afghanistan, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Syria, Sudan, and Northern Nigeria. These countries also feature among the most vulnerable and least prepared to adapt to climate change, according to the ND-GAIN Index. In 2019, conflict pushed 77 million people into acute food insecurity globally, while weather extremes pushed a further 34 million into food insecurity – the latter an increase of 5 million from the previous year.

A general worsening of acute food insecurity is now being observed across several countries compared with the situation reported in 2019 as per the Global Report on Food Crises 2020 from April this year. Conflict-induced food insecurity and the risk of famine is on the rise in certain places, including in the DRC, North-east Nigeria, South Sudan and Yemen, Sahel. In the Central African Republic, over 50% of the population are now acutely food insecure, while the prevalence of acute food insecurity in Burkina Faso has increased by 300% this year. Food insecurity levels in Sudan have increased by 64% compared to that of last year and in Somalia it has increased by 67%.

Food insecurity, and food systems may also be contributing to climate change and conflict, in ways that have not yet been fully articulated or captured. For instance, we know that the food system contributes 21-37 percent of total net human-caused emissions of greenhouse gasses and accounts for 70 percent of freshwater use. Agriculture – cropping and pasturage – occupies nearly 40 percent of global land, while intensive livestock production has been the most significant cause of biodiversity loss in recent decades. Again we may also see the impact of Covid-19 play an exacerbating role in this interplay.

Crises are also becoming more protracted. Even prior to Covid-19, the humanitarian system, as it is currently structured, struggled to respond to these often-protracted and recurrent crises, extreme weather events and natural hazards in a way that meets the ever-increasing needs, or in such a way that is conducive to ensuring sustainable well-being, stability and development.

Rationale

Although protection, resilience building and risk-reduction have long been recognised as essential components of humanitarian response, in working towards addressing root causes, it is now clearer than ever that simply reacting to needs as they occur (repeatedly) is no longer feasible nor sustainable. In contributing to global efforts in addressing current root causes of needs, we must better map, understand and communicate the actual and quantifiable field-level impact, as well as lived experience of how the intersection between hunger, conflict and climate plays out in our countries of operation. In order to propose solutions and approaches that respond to the needs of the poorest people, we must acknowledge and understand the impact of multiple and diverse shocks on their lives. This will deepen our understanding and inform our programme approaches, guide our advocacy and enhance and steer response practices.

At a minimum, the intersectionality between conflict, climate and hunger, and how this materializes on the ground (manifestations, root causes and impacts) – particularly within pre-designated countries (Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, Niger, DRC and CAR) – will be explored and described. The role of governance dynamics, existing monitoring mechanisms and related gaps should also be examined and described. Suggested lines of enquiry could include, but not limited to, issues surrounding resource scarcity (ensuing conflicts, pattern predictions etc.); displacement patterns (climate and conflict-related movements, e.g. Somalia); ongoing responses of both aid actors and governments, and related observable corollary gaps; how these dynamics can be better recorded, tracked and monitored.

This will pave the way for exploring how to strengthen disaster risk reduction activities and resilience building, programmatically, over the longer-term, as well as on establishing robust early warning systems, to allow governments, affected communities and individuals to better withstand and adapt to shocks and hazards as and when they will inevitably occur and to more feasibly and efficiently plan for and mobilise anticipatory responses as needed.

Concern Worldwide has extensive experience in responding to hunger and extreme poverty globally, and our programme activities already span responses to conflict and climatic events, including in many of the world’s worst food crises. As such, we have an especially authoritative voice and a wealth of field experience with which to propel the conversation forward with regards to the root causes of hunger.

Methodology

The overall research will be divided into two stages:

• This first, shorter ‘exploratory stage’ that will involve a considerable amount of desk research and field research/consultation combined, to gather both quantitative and qualitative data that will help us identify desirable case study countries, and will describe the dynamics at the intersection where conflict, climate and hunger play out in those countries;
• A second and longer ‘technical review stage’ in 2021

This TOR relates to the first exploratory stage that will be completed in 2020/early 2021 and will outline a ‘problem/impact analysis’ of the current state of play with regards to the intersection between conflict, climate and hunger in pre-designated countries of operation for Concern. Advocacy messaging will then be drawn from this impact analysis. Priority countries for Concern to analyse in this regard are Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, Niger, DRC and CAR. This stage will also identify key themes, dynamics, questions and areas, informing further research which will be designed in collaboration with selected Concern country programmes.

A TOR for the second stage will be developed following, and pursuant to the findings of the initial stage.

Exploratory Stage: Objectives

1.1 A desk review of relevant research and analysis already conducted in this field, and particularly in relation to the pre-designated priority countries (Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, Niger, DRC and CAR) and to narrow the focus into particular lines of enquiry. Resources would include, but not be limited to:

• Concern’s existing related research and documentation of impacts (short, medium and longer term)
• Country-specific needs assessments and context overviews (by Concern and others)
• Relevant available country, region and district-level quantitative data and analysis
• Existing research on impact of climate and/or conflict on humanitarian needs, globally and by country
• IPCC materials and other scientific and academic research and analysis

This phase will provide an overview relevant identifiable trends and dynamics relating to the intersection between conflict, climate and hunger – both globally, and as pertaining to the pre-designated list of countries; which will enable the identification of appropriate and feasible lines and modes of more targeted enquiry for the next evidence-gathering phase.

Deliverable 1: Findings and key messages with respect to this phase will be shared and discussed with Concern, before proceeding to next evidence gathering phase.

• In developing appropriate lines of enquiry for the next phase, the selected consultant will be guided by Concern towards certain specific areas for exploration, but will also be invited to suggest additional opportunities as identified
• As already outlined above, at a minimum, the intersectionality between conflict, climate and hunger, and how this materializes on the ground (manifestations, root causes and impacts) – particularly within the pre-designated countries – will be explored and described.

1.2 An evidence-gathering (or fact-finding) component to evaluate observable impacts, as well as to conduct interviews with affected persons and other relevant stakeholders (local authorities and national government officials, donors, other aid actors, community focus groups etc.) in compiling the qualitative and experienced impact of both climate change and conflict on the communities and individuals that Concern works with, as well as on government systems in the selected countries. To this extent, and given current logistical constraints, this aspect of the research may involve remote outreach and the selected consultant may need to work closely with Concern country teams, in-country analytical bodies, or through their own channels.

Deliverables 2 & 3:

• The Result of this phase will be *a full report on all findings derived from the evaluation of both quantitative and qualitative data, including a comprehensive overview of key messages and recommendations, relevant policy frameworks and policy as well as programmatic initiatives to pursue including suggesting direction for the second “technical review” stage of research.*
• 1 (face-to-face) presentation on the findings of the report.

Timeline: end November 2020 – mid February 2021 (approximately 25-30 working days)

How to apply

Call for Applications

Expression of Interest (EoI) package:

• Cover letter and CV including list of all relevant research conducted and publications developed
• Outline of proposed approach, including research methodology for the various priority countries and key questions
• Estimated consultancy cost breakdown

Please submit expression of interest packages to Brona Higgins, Advocacy Adviser with Concern Worldwide: brona.higgins@concern.net