Egypt and Ethiopia: The Curse of the Nile

Jul 7, 2020 | Marina Ottaway
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A slow-motion crisis has been developing in the Nile Valley since the Ethiopian government announced the construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile ten years ago. Even earlier, the possibility that Ethiopia would build a dam on the Nile was a nightmare scenario always present in the minds of Egyptian leaders.

GERD will produce electricity for Ethiopian domestic consumption and for export to neighboring countries rather than provide water for irrigation. The water used to power the turbines will be returned to the river downstream from the dam. Thus, the dam will not decrease the flow of water to Sudan and Egypt over the long term, but it will decrease flow during the time it takes to fill the reservoir. The timetable for accumulation has been the subject of a decade of negotiations between the two countries, but there is still no agreement on crucial issues. Adding urgency to the matter, the dam is so near completion that Ethiopia could start filling the reservoir this summer – and the rainy season has only just begun. Egypt is determined to stop this from happening until an agreement has been reached, threatening to turn to the UN Security Council for help or even to go to war. In preparation, it has successfully negotiated an agreement with the government of South Sudan to build a military base near the Ethiopian border. While the two countries are trying to avoid an open conflict and consultation continues on and off, Egypt is becoming more aggressive and the situation could get out of hand.