Russia's Arctic Development Poses Risks for Combating Climate Change in the Baltics

Apr 24, 2020 | Viktorija Rusinaite
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The EU is hoping to curb effects of climate change by implementing the European Green Deal — a policy package aimed at reaching a carbon-neutral economy by 2050 and decoupling economic growth from depleting natural resources. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation hopes to benefit from a warming planet as it looks to boost its maritime economic activities and increase its military presence in the Arctic. Using warm temperature periods, which get longer every year, Russia hopes to enhance the navigability of the Northern Sea Route and explore and exploit natural resources covered by layers of ice and snow. Last December the then-acting head of government, Dmitry Medvedev, issued a plan to develop infrastructure in the Northern Sea Route by 2035. This is the first plan of such detail to foresee the construction of at least 40 arctic vessels (including new nuclear icebreakers), the renewal of airports and ports, the building of new railways, and commissioning helicopters and planes adapted to the harsh Arctic conditions.

A shipping-ready Northern Sea Route could cut up the maritime journey from Asia to Europe by up to two weeks. For example, cargo shipments from Tokyo to Hamburg currently take 48 days through the Suez Canal — using a Northern Sea Route, the same journey would take only 35 days. Russia also plans to increase the volumes of shipped goods through the Northern Sea Route. The cargo volumes through NSR have been steadily increasing, from 9.7 million tons in 2017, to 18 million tons in 2018, to 31.5 million tons in 2019. A 2018 decree from Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated plans to increase these numbers to 80 million tons by 2024. At the 2019 Arctic Forum, Rosatom CEO Alexey Likhachev was even more optimistic, quoting 96.2 million tons to be shipped through NSR by 2024.

While Lithuania, along with other EU countries, is preparing for the European Green Deal and reaching a carbon neutral economy by 2050, Russia is headed in the opposite direction. Industrialisation and vessel traffic in the Arctic will without doubt contribute to more CO2 emissions. Nuclear waste in the Arctic also poses ecological challenges. Moreover, Russia’s exploration and exploitation of non-renewable energy resources is very likely to pose competition for renewable energy resources towards which the EU is heading. According to various estimates, renewables should constitute from 50 to 100 percent of overall EU energy consumption by 2050. The EU binding goal for 2030 is that 32 percent of overall energy consumption should be from renewable energy sources.

The non-renewable energy sources that Russia is exploring and plans to exploit could provide a cheaper alternative for EU countries struggling economically. EU climate law is currently being drafted, so it is unclear what kind of measures will be applied if member states fail to adhere to EU benchmarks. According to the draft, greenhouse emission targets set are irreversible and legally binding to all member states. However, it is possible that Russia’s cheaper non-renewable energy alternatives might, in the next 30 years, seem like a more viable alternative for economically struggling member states, thus impeding the implementation of the European Green Deal and drawing a wedge between wealthier and poorer EU countries.