Climate Change and National Security, Part II: How Big a Threat Is the Climate?

Jan 7, 2019 | Michelle Melton
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The US national security establishment has been increasingly vocal that climate change is a national security threat—and the US is not alone in this regard. But exactly how serious is this threat? How concerned should policymakers be? Assessing the magnitude of the national security threat posed by climate change requires addressing the antecedent issue of timing. Climate change is unfolding—for now—in a relatively linear, gradual way, and as a result, the magnitude of the threat depends on the time horizon. The national security implications of climate change are different between now and 2050, between now and 2100, and between now and 2300.