Heatwaves, Climate Change and (In)security through a Gender Lens

Jul 20, 2023 | Marisa O. Ensor

Intense heatwaves fueled by climate change have been toppling records around the globe in recent months. Expected to continue increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration, heatwaves will be particularly devastating in at-risk regions that are least prepared to respond to the impacts of extreme temperatures. Direct consequences include a range of health conditions potentially leading to increased morbidity and mortality, especially among older women and other vulnerable groups. Secondary large-scale effects are also likely, including higher prevalence of food insecurity,  conflict, and forced migration. Gender-based violence against women and people from gender minorities is similarly on the rise. Furthermore, periods of extreme heat not only impact human populations; heatwaves’ adverse consequences for non-human life disrupt ecosystems and undercut the natural and constructed environments that keep us alive and healthy.

Climate Change, Global Warming, and Heatwaves: A “New Normal”?

There is no hazard whose increasing severity can be attributed to climate change with greater certainty than extreme heat. The evidence supporting an increase in heatwaves in recent decades is indisputable. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has concluded that the extreme temperatures observed over the past decade would have been extremely unlikely to occur without human influence on the climate system. The IPCC has also found that it is virtually certain that hot extremes have become more frequent and more intense across most regions of the globe since the 1950s. These trends are accelerating globally.

The past eight years have been the Earth's hottest according to research by the Copernicus Climate Change Service, a group affiliated with the European Union. High temperatures already broke records around the world in the summer of 2022, first in South Asia and then in North America, Europe, and China. The UN World Meteorological Association  declared that global average temperatures in June of this year were again the highest ever recorded. Heatwaves have persisted into the first few weeks of July, prompting predictions that 2023 could be the hottest year on record. Global warming will continue to fuel the occurrence of extreme-heat events, as predicted by the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment report. The UN World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has stressed that, worldwide, more intense and extreme heat is unavoidable. The recently declared El Niño is expected to further amplify the occurrence and intensity of extreme heat events.

Projected future death rates from extreme heat are both staggeringly high and staggeringly unequal, with vulnerable people – e.g., older adults, especially elderly women; infants and children; people with chronic health conditions – in poorer countries suffering even higher mortality rates. Extreme heat will also increasingly undermine agriculture and livestock systems, degrade natural resources, damage infrastructure, and contribute to global poverty.  The International Labor Organization (ILO) projects that economic losses related to heat stress will rise from US$280 billion in 1995 to $2.4 trillion in 2030. Lower-income countries will experience the biggest losses, further entrenching global inequality.

Heatwaves, Conflict, and Displacement

Establishing a direct relationship between extreme heat and violent conflict is a complex issue that precludes unambiguous conclusions. Research findings on the relationship between climate and conflict remain inconsistent and contested. A growing body of evidence nevertheless shows that rapid global warming can – and is – increasing violent behavior. One study found a coincidence rate of 9 percent for armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Other studies collating global data found that the risks of interpersonal violence increased by 2.3 percent and intergroup conflicts by 13.2 percent as temperatures rose. Heatwaves and other environmental extremes associated to the changing climate are believed to ignite conflict and violence by threatening people’s sense of stability. The increasing intensity and frequency of heat waves may stoke grievances, with dire implications for violence and conflict in the affected regions.

While climate stressors cannot be said to directly cause conflict, they can add to a volatile mix of political and socioeconomic factors that increase fragility and ultimately make conflict more likely. Drivers specifically related to extreme heat include disruptions to livelihoods, food price increases, displacement, and heightened competition for scarce resources, such as water and pasture. When conflicts do occur, they can vastly increase people’s exposure to heat risks and undermine their coping capacities. The destruction of shelter and damage to life-sustaining health and water systems that often accompany conflicts – particularly in urban environments – dramatically increases the risks associated with heatwaves.

The direct and indirect impacts of extreme heat are expected to contribute to greater human mobility and displacement in the future. The Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC) recorded 1.1 million new internal displacements that it linked to extreme temperatures between 2008 and 2020. It also linked 3.4 million displacements in this period to wildfires more common during heatwaves, 90 percent of them in the Americas. Such displacement has been correlated with increases in social and economic tensions and risks of violence if the migrants are not integrated into their host communities. Caution must, however, be exercised in drawing direct causal links, as the decision to move is often a complex one that involves a combination of interconnected factors.

How Gender Relates to Risk

Heatwaves, like all other aspects of the climate crisis, are not "gender neutral". Heatwaves can amplify existing gender inequalities, posing gender-differentiated threats to the livelihoods, health, and safety of those affected. As already noted, gender-based violence against women and people from gender minorities is on the rise; evidence also points to increased rates of intimate partner violence during heatwaves. Social and cultural factors cause women and girls to face different and sometimes greater exposure to heat risks than men and boys. Gendered roles in occupations with particularly high exposure to extreme heat illustrate these differences.

In many regions, women bear a disproportionate responsibility for securing food, water, and fuel. While there is considerable variation across regions, the UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) concludes that the global labor burden of rural women likely exceeds that of men. When extreme heat dries water sources and affects food production, women’s workloads increase even more, as they must walk longer distances in the sweltering sun to find water and food. On the other hand, the International Labor Organization (ILO) estimates that men comprise around 80 percent of global employment in the construction sector where exposure to heat risks is higher.

Heat-related mortality was found to be higher in females than in males – especially in the oldest age group (≥ 80 years) – under extreme heat in a study of cases occurring between 2000 and 2016, a trend believed to have persistent in more recent years. Research also indicates that extreme heat increases the incidence of stillbirths, and that women are more vulnerable to heat stroke and dehydration when pregnant or breastfeeding. Overall, climate change is increasing the spread of vector-borne illnesses such as malaria, dengue fever, and Zika virus, which are linked to worse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Work such as caring for infants, the sick, and the elderly – tasks often assigned to women – tends to be less adaptable to dangerously hot conditions. In informal settlements, where structures are built with low-quality materials, more time indoors leads to prolonged exposure to temperatures significantly higher than those outdoors. Social and cultural expectations, such as heavy layering of clothes, further predispose many women and girls to other direct heat-related risks.

The Way Forward

The effects of global warming on the world’s physical landscape often lead to geopolitical changes that threaten to destabilize already vulnerable regions.  As a UN Environment Programme (UNEP) concludes, it follows that “climate action holds the key to tackling global conflict”.  A joint report by the International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre recommends stepped-up action in five key areas:

1. Build the evidence base on the impacts of extreme heat, and provide early, actionable information to decision makers.
2. Support preparedness and expand anticipatory action for heatwaves and compound disasters.
3. Explore new and more sustainable ways of financing local action.
4. Adapt humanitarian response to accelerating extreme heat.
5. Deepen engagement across the development, humanitarian, and climate spheres.

Building resilience to climate-related extreme events is a core component of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To be effective, heat action plans need to be highly tailored to the particular environmental conditions, demographics, geography, infrastructure and socioeconomics of the communities they are designed to protect. Addressing the gendered-differentiated impacts of heat waves on human security and geopolitics would enable a more peaceful future for all.

Dr. Marisa O. Ensor is an applied environmental and legal anthropologist currently based at the Georgetown Institute for Women, Peace and Security (GIWPS) where she leads the portfolio on climate security.  She is also the current Chair of the Environmental Peacebuilding Association’s Gender Interest Group (“EnPAx-GIG”).