Request for Proposal: The Implications of Climate and Environmental Change on Migration and Displacement

Jul 10, 2022 | United States Institute of Peace
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USIP is a national, nonpartisan, independent institute, founded by Congress and dedicated to the proposition that a world without violent conflict is possible, practical, and essential for U.S. and global security. In conflict zones abroad, the Institute works with local partners to prevent, mitigate, and resolve violent conflict. For more information, please visit http://www.usip.org.

The Climate, Environment, and Conflict (CEC) program at USIP aims to advance applied research and policy development on migration and displacement related to climate and environmental change.  USIP is currently supporting research on climate, migration, and security through three projects:  1) Examining the pathways of climate-related migration to urban areas; 2) Proposing a new socio-economic agenda to connect climate, environment, conflict resolution, and peacebuilding in urban areas; and 3) Developing recommendations for how U.S. government agencies and the military should approach the risks posed by slow-onset climate impacts. 

The academic literature around climate change and migration is growing.  Yet, the specifics of how climate change will impact migration and how important it is among other factors that influence migration is far from settled.  While human mobility has been an important adaptive response to environmental change for thousands of years, the scale of the impacts of climate change and environmental degradation is quickly increasing.  Studies point to slow-onset climate change pushing up to 200 million internal migrants worldwide by 2050 (Groundswell 2021).  Meanwhile, in 2021, sudden-onset disasters displaced over 23 million people, and conflict displaced more than 14 million, a record high (IDMC 2022).  In many cases, conflict and disasters intersect, threatening long-term stability and extending displacement.   Displaced people often end up in cities, but by 2050 more than 800 million urban residents will be exposed to rising sea levels alone, not to mention extreme heat (1.6 billion) and water scarcity (685 million) (C40 Cities).

Such trends augur increasing risks of instability and violence as the number of displaced people rises, and they seek refuge, either temporarily or permanently, in urban areas already facing a variety of social, economic, political, and environmental challenges.  These trends also demand a more thoughtful global policy approach both to the immediate humanitarian issue of disaster-related displacement and to the long-term implications of slow-onset climate change that may cause even greater displacement in the future.

The White House’s Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration (2021) outlined key lines of effort for U.S. Government interagency work, as well as priorities for additional applied research and analytics.  USIP expects its support for policy and applied research to contribute to these priorities and to support USIP’s mission by advancing evidence-based research that has a significant impact on peacebuilding scholarship, policy, and programming.  

Purpose of the RFP

The CEC Program seeks to support the development of up to four USIP Peaceworks publications and Special Reports to help guide USIP’s thinking and policy development in the area of migration and displacement related to climate and environmental change.

Those interested in submitting a proposal should have demonstrated experience in research and strong scholarship related to peace and conflict studies.  Scholars at all levels, from early career to the more established, are encouraged to submit proposals.

Proposals should clearly describe the importance of the issue to be addressed, research objectives, and policy significance.  Proposals should also demonstrate knowledge of the research subject and relevant literature. 

Scope of Work

USIP expects to award up to four contracts either for the development of policy papers or for applied research projects, with the goal of publishing the work either as USIP Peaceworks or Special Reports publications, with timelines dependent on scope and research demands.  Peaceworks publications target peacebuilding practitioners or academics (although not necessarily both at the same time), and range from 8,000 to 20,000 words, including endnotes.  Peaceworks publications emphasize in-depth background, research, and analysis, and include detailed policy recommendations and conclusions.  Special Reports are short, timely, policy-relevant reports that range from 2,500-10,000 words.  Special Reports offer policymakers, practitioners, and scholars a distillation of expert research, lessons learned and problem solving in the topic field.  The publications should offer recommendations to USIP, with a focus on the changing nature of conflict, to help guide its agenda for policy and practice-relevant research. 

We invite researchers at universities or research institutions, as well as unaffiliated researchers, to submit proposals that address one of the issues outlined below.  Proposals can be based on ongoing research that is ready to be turned into a policy piece or novel research that requires more extensive work.  USIP would also welcome follow-on components to an ongoing research project that addresses one of the below issues and will consider proposals that identify important related topics that do not appear on this list.

Potential themes of interest include: 

1. Migrant flows towards cities, including secondary cities: How is the potential for displacement from rural to urban settings linked to slow-onset climate and environmental changes, and what are the implications of these flows?

  • Lessons learned from historical relationship between urban growth and urban conflict
  • Common features and characteristics of these populations, including types and levels of resources available to them (e.g. social capital, financial capital)
  • Prior knowledge about destinations, challenges faced on arrival
  • Information on additional characteristics that could help target efforts to better integrate these populations into receiving communities
  • Policy approaches for mitigating impacts on urban fragility or the risk of violence

2. Understanding cross-border vs. internal displacement: How do climate and environmental change in regions and areas of fragility contribute to cross-border migration vs. internal displacement?  How do attempts to respond to climate change – either climate mitigation measures or climate change maladaptation – lead to displacement?

  • Qualitative differences between those who cross borders and those who are displaced internally
  • Differentiated impacts of displacement on specific groups of people, including women and girls, people with disabilities, indigenous communities, or nomadic or semi-nomadic communities whose livelihoods have traditionally relied on migration, etc.
  • Whether the nature of the event (sudden vs. slow onset) influences choices about migration and destination
  • Regional implications of displacement and/or migration, including
    • Engagement with countries under sanctions or other restrictions that are facing climate risks (e.g. Eritrea, Iran, Myanmar, etc.) that can exacerbate regional issues around migration and/or displacement
    • How “transit countries” support or securitize migration flows and implications for activity of illicit groups
  • How displacement and/or migration can serve as positive approaches to adaptation to climate change
  • Implications for policy approaches

3. Potential for hotspots of conflict in receiving communities: How do we identify hotspots, identify levels of current support for migrants and IDPs, and locate concrete gaps that require assistance?

  • Features of these hotspots and whether they align with urban fragility and/or resilience characteristics and dynamics
  • Potential for exacerbating the risk of political unrest and/or conflict
  • Implications for secondary cities as well as capital cities
  • Lessons learned from positive approaches for integrating migrants
  • Approaches for predicting and preventing conflict

4. Additional flashpoints for conflict: What are additional flashpoints for unrest and/or conflict around unplanned migration, planned relocation (managed retreat), and populations in situations of immobility?

  • Improved understanding of the risks for conflict
  • Policy options for mitigating these risks

5. Linkages between violent extremism and climate and environmental change: What are the key conclusions from existing evidence around potential linkages between climate and environmental change, and recruiting for armed groups and/or violent extremist organizations (VEOs) in both home and receiving or host communities?

  • Are migrants and/or IDPs due to climate and environmental change more susceptible to recruitment by armed groups and/or VEOs? If so, why?  What techniques are used to target them?
  • Does population displacement due to climate and environmental change figure into narratives around government failures that are exploited by armed groups and/or VEOs?
  • Are there other risks from the response of armed groups and/or VEOs to climate change? For example, do armed groups and/or VEOs use climate change to hoard/exploit resources to pressure state authorities, or are there other risks we are currently missing?
  • Policy options and approaches for mitigating risks.

For full details on these terms of reference, timeline, deliverables, etc, please see link provided.