Climate Change, Disasters and Armed Conflict

Jun 7, 2023 | Tobias Ide
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Both experts and policy makers have long expressed concerns about climate change as a security risk, with disasters playing a key role in these debates.

My new book provides a comprehensive answer to the question of whether or not disasters increase armed conflict risks. It studies 36 cases of large-scale disasters striking conflict zones in 22 countries in the period 1990-2015. Twenty of those disasters were climate-related (see here for a short overview). The key goal of the study was to trace how disasters shaped the conflict intensity and behaviour of the conflict parties.

First, decision makers can still address other drivers of disaster risks, such as persistent inequality or poorly managed urbanisation. Second, disasters can also result in no change or even a reduction in conflict intensity, hence providing windows of opportunity for aid delivery and negotiations between conflict parties. Neither disasters nor conflicts are an inevitable outcome of climate change. The future remains ours to make.