Beyond a “Threat Multiplier”: Exploring Links between Climate Change and Security

Jul 26, 2022 | Farah Hegazi, Elise Remling, Kyungmee Kim, and Simone Bunse
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The idea implicit in the term “threat multiplier” is straightforward: climate change can exacerbate security threats. Yet this formulation puts the emphasis squarely on climate change, rather than exploring the complex social, economic and political conditions—as well as a  variety of indirect pathways—that come into confluence to determine whether (and how) the impacts of climate change affect security. Moving beyond a narrow threat multiplier concept to include the interplay between the potential pathways connecting the effects of climate change with insecurity is essential. 

A key step will be considering the role of governance beyond mitigation and adaptation. Effective responses combine climate change-appropriate economic diversification, building robust and functioning social safety nets, rooting out corruption, reducing marginalization and increasing the accountability of government.

As policymakers and analysts search for entry points to manage climate-related security risks, they must re-evaluate the concept of “threat multiplication”—and think more broadly about what “multiplying threats” actually means.