Cold War Redux: How a Dam On The Nile Has Become an International Issue

Mar 28, 2022 | Richard Seifmanand and Claude Forthomme
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The Nile has long been a point of contention between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, with a history of past and present superpowers shifting allegiances at any given moment in time. The contentious hydroelectric dam on the Nile carries a name – the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) – that aptly reflects Ethiopia’s ambitions for it. The dam lies across the Blue Nile, which originates in Ethiopia and accounts for around 85% of the water that eventually flows through the Nile downstream in Sudan and Egypt. The flare-up around the dam has its roots in a historical error made by the UK almost a century ago when the British did not take into proper account Ethiopia’s interests at the time.

The problem is that Ethiopia essentially rushed ahead to build the dam without even sending out the necessary prior notification to Egypt and Sudan, a fundamental legal requirement in the international community now that all major aid agencies have developed assessment procedures around any dam built anywhere in the world. 

The problem is that Ethiopia essentially rushed ahead to build the dam without even sending out the necessary prior notification to Egypt and Sudan, a fundamental legal requirement in the international community now that all major aid agencies have developed assessment procedures around any dam built anywhere in the world.

Whatever the outcome of the Ukraine war, the Russian invasion will affect Egypt, which is the world’s largest importer of wheat (12-13 million tons yearly), with well over 55% coming from Russia and Ukraine. With food prices rising, bread shortages have triggered riots in Egypt before; and with worse agriculture possibly on the horizon due to water shortages, this could be an impetus for Egypt’s leaders to take matters into their own hands while other eyes are focused on Europe.