The Traumas of Unplanned Decarbonization in Fragile States

Jan 6, 2025 | Alex de Waal and Aditya Sarkar
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It is widely recognized that oil states are rarely democratic, and often conflict-prone. As these governments wind down their dependence on this toxic resource as part of broader global efforts to decarbonize, one might imagine that the end of oil will spell a better future for the citizens of oil-producing countries. Sadly, a look at the cases of fragile fossil fuel producing states (FFFPs) suggests that this may not be the case.

A decline in oil revenues shapes governance in FFFPs in particularly problematic ways. These states are least able to plan strategically for the carbon transition. They also usually lack the capacity to cushion the political and economic fallout when hydrocarbon revenues collapse.

This phenomenon has a name: “traumatic decarbonization.” Yet research into it is still in its infancy. So our special issue of the journal Environment and Security on decarbonization and peace examines findings from case studies on Ecuador, Iraq, Nigeria, Sudan, South Sudan, and Venezuela—as well as cross-cutting studies. This new research not only explores what traumatic decarbonization may mean, but it also explores avenues for future research.