Can Natural Disasters Precipitate Peace?
Publisher: Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law
Author(s): Aleksandra Egorova and Cullen S. Hendrix
Date: 2014
Topics: Dispute Resolution/Mediation, Humanitarian Assistance, Peace Agreements
Countries: Indonesia, Sri Lanka
Though there is still debate over the specific contribution of climate change to violent conflict, the balance of evidence suggests climate change will likely be politically destabilizing across broad swaths of Africa and Asia, with natural disasters and climatic fluctuations linked to the outbreak of armed conflict. This brief considers the prospects for natural disasters to instead provide windows of opportunity for achieving peace via negotiated settlements. Drawing on case studies of Indonesia and Sri Lanka as comparisons for patterns documented in Africa, the findings demonstrate, first, the importance of decoupling negotiations over disaster relief from the negotiated peace process and, second, the pivotal role of proactive international mediators. Though some aspects of African conflicts and natural disasters make them more complicated to resolve than those in the Asian cases discussed here, natural disasters may still provide opportunities to foster peace and build resilience in Africa.