Causal Linkages between Environmental Change and Conflict
Publisher: Springer
Author(s): Charlène Cabot
Date: 2016
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes
There are many approaches to the causal linkages between environmental change and conflict. This chapter reviews the different schools of thought (including both theoretical considerations and supporting studies). The chapter begins by introducing one of the best-known approaches, inspired by Malthusianism, which stipulates that environmental change and population growth will lead to environmental scarcity and induce conflicts motivated by the need to control the remaining environmental resources. Critiques and alternative perspectives are then presented. They highlight, among other issues, that the role of environmental drivers should not be overestimated. Current research and available evidence does not allow clear-cut conclusions on the potential of climate change to provoke conflicts. However, there are indications that climate change can be a threat multiplier that destabilizes communities and induces or aggravates small-scale conflicts over natural resources. In combination with a range of socio-economic and political factors, climate change impacts such as scarcity (drought, resource degradation), volatile precipitations and reduced economic growth can fuel conflict potential. Nevertheless, non-violent outcomes are possible.