The Effects of Oil Production and Ethnic Representation on Violent Conflict in Nigeria: A Mixed-Methods Approach
Publisher: Terrorism and Political Violence
Author(s): Carlo Koos and Jan Pierskalla
Date: 2015
Topics: Extractive Resources, Governance
Countries: Nigeria
A large qualitative literature on violent conflict in Nigeria has identified the importance of oil production and ethnicity as salient factors in understanding violence, especially in the oil-rich Niger Delta. This resonates with the broader literature on natural resources, ethnic exclusion, and conflict. This article advances existing research by providing the first highly disaggregated statistical analysis of oil, ethnicity, and violence for Nigerian Local Government Areas (LGAs). It tests whether oil production in a weak state environment, and local groups’ access to governmental power, affect the level of violence in Nigeria. It employs unique disaggregated data on violent conflict events, proprietary data on oil production, and newly collected information on local ethnic groups’ access to the federal government for 774 LGAs. Strong evidence is found that LGAs with oil infrastructure experience significantly more violence than others, while access to the federal government significantly reduces violence. These findings are complimented with a qualitative investigation of violent conflicts in Nigeria.