Contention, Cooperation, and Context: A Systematic Review of Research on Disasters and Political Conflicts
Publisher: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction
Author(s): Chloe Canavan and Tobias Ide
Date: 2024
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Disasters
Research on the impact of disasters on conflict risks is burgeoning. We conduct a systematic review of peer-reviewed studies on the topic published between 2000 and 2022 to take stock of existing evidence and identify knowledge gaps. The large majority of studies (78 %) provide at least some evidence that (natural hazard-related) disasters affect the risk of larger-scale political conflicts. 55 % of the studies find that disasters increase conflict risks, with support being particularly strong for low-intensity conflicts. 23 % of the studies argue that disasters decrease conflict risks. The impact of disasters on conflict risks is strongly dependent on context factors like previous political instability, socio-economic inequality, effective governance, or external support. This serves as a reminder that the disaster-conflict nexus is deeply political. We also consider the causal mechanisms connecting disasters to conflict risks. Studies provide most support for the mechanisms of relative deprivation (for higher conflict risks) as well as for disaster diplomacy and resource constraints (for lower conflict risks). The findings vary considerably when distinguishing between different disaster types and forms of conflicts. Furthermore, we note a geographic imbalance: Almost all research is focussing on Africa and Asia, while the large majority of authors comes from the Global North.