How ‘Traumatic Decarbonization’ Can Impact Political Stability and Peace
Publisher: United States Institute of Peace
Author(s): Aditya Sarkar and Alex de Waal
Date: 2024
Topics: Economic Recovery, Extractive Resources, Governance
The process of decarbonization — that is, the replacement of fossil fuels with non-hydrocarbon-based forms of energy — is essential for the world to meet its climate goals. But in many fragile oil-producing states, hydrocarbon revenues are not just central to national economies. They also bind together the political system through elite revenue-sharing pacts. The rapid, unplanned decarbonization of these countries would spark political crisis, a process known as “traumatic decarbonization.”
In a preview of an upcoming USIP report, Tufts University’s Aditya Sarkar and Alex de Waal discuss how hydrocarbon revenue is used to maintain political stability in fragile oil-producing states, what traumatic decarbonization means for peace and conflict, and how policymakers, international organizations and civil society can mitigate its effects.