Spatial Patterns of Communal Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa


Publisher: Journal of Peace Research

Author(s): Stefan Döring and Katariina Mustasilta

Date: 2023

Topics: Conflict Causes, Humanitarian Assistance, Livelihoods

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Communal violence is a major source of insecurity within and across borders, sparking significant displacement flows and disturbing livelihoods. The authors clarify theoretical pathways for different spillover processes, focusing on drought exposure affecting not locally but in nearby areas. Applying spatial models, the authors test the expectations regarding nearby violence breeding violence and nearby drought increasing violence with data on incidences of communal violence for sub-Saharan Africa (1990–2014). The results demonstrate that communal violence explains nearby communal violence through different spillover processes. The authors also find evidence for an increase in violence due to exposure from neighborhood droughts as well as other conflict-inducing factors. Thus, drought is related to conflict, not where drought occurs, but in the surrounding areas.