‘Water Wars’: Strategic Implications of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam
Publisher: Conflict, Security, and Development
Author(s): Ron Matthews and Vlado Vivoda
Date: 2023
Topics: Conflict Causes, Peace Agreements, Renewable Resources
Countries: Egypt, Ethiopia, Sudan
The construction of Ethiopia’s Renaissance Dam is a fait accompli. By 2022, around 90 per cent of its construction had been completed, but only two of the 13 turbines were producing electricity, and so uncertainty remains over the dam’s impact on the Nile’s downstream countries. After protracted negotiations between Ethiopia, where the waters originate, and Egypt and Sudan, the two states most heavily dependent on Nile waters, the result is diplomatic stalemate. The intractable problem is not so much the dam but rather the 1902 and 1929 treaties between Great Britain and its then Egyptian and Sudanese colonies over the utilisation of the Nile waters. While Ethiopia was not a British colony, it was a party to the 1902 Treaty, but has always interpreted the water-sharing arrangements as inequitable. The problem’s resolution is now fiendishly complex. Impoverished Ethiopia has unilaterally proceeded with a hugely expensive dam, and the contemporary danger is that with diplomatic efforts seemingly exhausted, the military option becomes a distinct possibility. The question is whether Egypt’s military posturing is real-politik or simply rhetoric.