Afghanistan: Spring Disaster Contingency Plan (Mar-Jun 2021)
Publisher: UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs
Date: 2021
Topics: Climate Change, Disasters, Humanitarian Assistance, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources
Countries: Afghanistan
Recognising the multiple, overlapping challenges facing the people of Afghanistan as spring approaches – including a potential La Niña-driven drought, intensifying conflict, and ongoing COVID-19 challenges – the ICCT conducted a multi-sectoral analysis of likely needs across highly-impacted provinces. The analysis ranked the 25 most affected provinces as high, medium, or low risk, based on a range of weighted indicators including: precipitation, malnutrition, wheat production, vegetation, reliance on agriculture, food insecurity, reduced coping index scores, water quality, availability and access, household debt, and access to health services. Carrying out a multi-dimensional analysis across these wide-ranging indicators acknowledges that the environmental impacts of any potential drought will collide with other pre-existing vulnerabilities, impacting on people’s capacity to cope with new shocks and exacerbating existing humanitarian needs. This document is the first iteration of the Spring Disaster Contingency Plan and is based on the best available data, historical patterns and previous lessons learned. The intent of the plan is to highlight specific risks and the most urgent needs facing at-risk provinces from March-June, as currently projected. It is anticipated that the figures and the plans reflected in this document will be updated as new information becomes available, particularly with regard to the risk of displacement. This plan factors-in displacement due to conflict but it does not yet cover any potential additional displacement driven by the likely drought and other related needs. Further analysis is needed to identify potential high-risk locations for displacement and likely host communities.