Measuring the Intensity of Conflicts in Conservation
Publisher: Society for Conservation Biology, Conservation Letters
Author(s): Jeremy J. Cusack , Tom Bradfer‐Lawrence , Zachary Baynham‐Herd, Sofia Castelló y Tickell , Isla Duporge, Håvard Hegre, Lara Moreno Zárate, Vincent Naude, Sahil Nijhawan, John Wilson, Dario Gerardo Zambrano Cortes, and Nils Bunnefeld
Date: 2021
Topics: Conflict Causes, Livelihoods, Renewable Resources
Countries: Colombia, India, Mexico, Scotland, Spain, Tanzania
Conflicts between the interests of biodiversity conservation and other human activities pose a major threat to natural ecosystems and human well‐being, yet few methods exist to quantify their intensity and model their dynamics. We develop a categorization of conflict intensity based on the curve of conflict, a model originally used to track the escalation and deescalation of armed conflicts. Our categorization assigns six intensity levels reflecting the discourse and actions of stakeholders involved in a given conflict, from coexistence or collaboration to physical violence. Using a range of case studies, we demonstrate the value of our approach in quantifying conflict trends, estimating transition probabilities between conflict stages, and modeling conflict intensity as a function of relevant covariates. By taking an evidence‐based approach to quantifying stakeholder behavior, the proposed framework allows for a better understanding of the drivers of conservation conflict development across a diverse range of socioecological scenarios.