Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia
Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
Date: 2021
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Disasters, Governance, Livelihoods, Peace and Security Operations, Renewable Resources
Countries: Somalia
Somalia is highly susceptible to the effects of climate change and extreme weather. Without anticipatory preventive approaches, these factors are likely to exacerbate existing vulnerabilities and reduce the people’s livelihood options, which in turn may have negative impacts for stability and security in Somalia. More frequent and intense droughts and floods undermine food security and worsen livelihood conditions in Somalia, adversely affecting marginalized groups, fuelling grievances, increasing competition over scarce resources and exacerbating existing community tensions and vulnerabilities. This has complex and interlinked implications for the peace and security situation in Somalia, including:
- Climate-related displacement and migration are likely to increase, particularly for those whose livelihoods are influenced by droughts and floods; that can fuel tensions at the community and national levels and disrupt ongoing conflict resolution initiatives.
- Internally displaced persons (IDPs) are particularly vulnerable to identity-related conflicts and armed group recruitment.
- Armed groups like Al Shabaab can take advantage of climate impacts by positioning themselves as service and relief providers following droughts and floods.
- Droughts and floods can link local resource conflicts to broader insecurity, as elites may exploit the impacts to advance their influence over communities and resources.