Investigating the Environmental Dimensions of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict
Publisher: Conflict and Environment Observatory
Author(s): Eoghan Darbyshire
Date: 2021
Topics: Governance, Land, Renewable Resources, Weapons, Waste, and Pollution
Countries: Armenia, Azerbaijan
The recent fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh featured a range of environmental dimensions, both on the ground and in the virtual sphere. This report takes a neutral look into environmental damage during the 2020 fighting, and these wider environmental issues.
A prominent feature of the conflict were the fierce disinformation campaigns fought online. In this highly partisan space, the scale of unevidenced environmental propaganda was unprecedented but fit seamlessly with a long history of absolutist narratives. Posts predominantly referenced the forest fires via incendiary weapons, but water, deforestation, landscape, environmental warfare, and agriculture also featured. Posts from pro-Armenian actors were directed by civil society, whereas pro-Azeri content and strategy emanated from government sources and was significantly amplified by Turkish social media accounts.
Using earth observation data, we investigated the hundreds of landscape fires that occurred between 26th October – 4th November, primarily in forests. The fires were climatologically anomalous, so likely arose directly from the fighting. The balance of intentional to accidental burns remains unknown. We also present new evidence of urban fires, but further work to assess their scope is required.
Some of the landscape fires were likely caused by incendiary weapons. Building on existing open source investigations, earth observation data confirms that one of the events was associated with the explosion of an Armenian field munitions store. We review the legal aspects on the use of these munitions, as their utility in clearing vegetation to aid drone warfare may represent an emerging tactic.
Pre-conflict, Azerbaijan was in the midst of a water crisis, and control of Nagorno-Karabakh’s rich water resources may have been viewed as a benefit from any confrontation. Water infrastructure was targeted during fighting, with some resources transferring hands. However, many pre-existing issues remain unresolved, such as maintenance of the Sarsang reservoir. The cooperation required to find solutions remains distant – depoliticisation of the environment is required.
The recent, historical and frozen conditions of the conflict have significantly impacted the landscape and geodiversity. This is clearest along the line of contact, which is now strewn with unexploded ordnance, trenches, conflict debris and toxic remnants of war – a threat to people, livelihoods and biodiversity. Proper clearance, testing and remediation will be required to make these lands safe. There also remains the risk of future environmental damage from militarised corridors, new lines of contact, industrial facilities such as the Sotk gold mine, and resource extraction.