Climate Security and a Vulnerability Model for Conflict Prevention: A Systematic Literature Review Focusing on African Agriculture
Publisher: SpringerLink
Author(s): Daniel Pearson and Peter Newman
Date: 2019
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Prevention, Renewable Resources
Within the last decade there have been rising concerns about the negative effects of climate change. Such changes could result in increasing rates of violent conflict among vulnerable communities. Discourse surrounding this concern has seen much attention from politicians and other public commentators. Prominent examples include former President Barack Obama speaking at the United Nations (UN) in 2009, asserting that the threat posed by climate change was serious, growing and would lead to more hunger and conflict. Other prominent United States security officials, such as former US Defence Secretary Chuck Hagel, have raised concerns about climate change acting as a threat multiplier contributing to greater conflict risk.However, the quantitative comparative literature is yet to settle on a consensus as to the definitive causal mechanisms linking climatic changes to violent conflict. The research continues to search for clear links as to where, how and when one can expect causal links in this climate-conflict debate. As it stands, the little consensus that exists sees any links as being indirect and mediated by a number of social, political, economic and other factors. Considering this, settling on precise and reliable conflict prevention1 initiatives, with a focus on climatic and environmental variables, would be ill advised due to the lack of consensus in the evidence base. Yet, climate adaptation is known to have the potential for reducing the negative impacts of climate change, and thus could be a viable option for the prevention of violent conflict as well.