Great Power Resource Competition in a Changing Climate
Publisher: New America
Author(s): Wyatt Scott, Francis Gassert, and Sharon Burke
Date: 2019
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Conflict Prevention, Cooperation, Governance, Peace and Security Operations
Countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Congo (DRC), Cote d'Ivoire, El Salvador, Guatemala
Natural security, or having enough energy, food, minerals, and water, is essential to supporting stable and prosperous societies. A growing global population, however, needs more resources to meet rising standards of living, even as the industrial age’s bill is coming due in the form of sweeping environmental degradation. Climate change is reshaping global natural security, affecting water availability, weather patterns, agricultural productivity, the energy trade, and the demand for critical minerals. Put simply: natural security is under threat around the world. China and the United States, the two biggest global economies, are also the biggest polluters and consumers of the world’s resources. Their natural security affects everyone else’s, both in terms of meeting demand and dealing with the consequences of high consumption. Moreover, the United States has declared a new era of “great power competition” and singled out China. Natural security will be a key part of the rivalry, especially as these two countries already rely on some of the same suppliers for key resources—including each other, for now. New America’s Natural Security Index compares the natural security of China and the United States and identifies their top resource allies and trade partners. By comparing the countries’ resources, production, imports, and exports, the index finds that the United States has a comparative natural security advantage over China, though China has a more diversified resource trade and investment portfolio, according to our analysis. Altogether, this project suggests that natural resources will help shape the competition between the United States and China for geopolitical influence and investments—and that competition will, in turn, shape global natural security.