The Future of Arctic Cooperation in a Changing Strategic Environment
Publisher: Rand Europe
Author(s): Stephanie Pexard, Abbie Tingstad, and Alexandra Hall
Date: 2018
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Conflict Prevention, Cooperation, Governance
In recent years, the Arctic has been increasingly described in the media as a region of intensifying geostrategic competition. As the region’s ice cover gets thinner and smaller in area (especially during the summer) due to rising temperatures, some resource-rich areas previously inaccessible may become increasingly attractive; maritime sea routes could be more heavily used by both commercial and military traffic; and coastal communities in the far north may experience new opportunities as well as elevated risks from a variety of hazards.
By most accounts cooperation in the Arctic region remains strong. Institutions such as the Arctic Council support agreements between nations and other stakeholders on areas of common concern, such as search and rescue and oil-spill response. Nations have generally agreed that coordinated action furthers the interests of all in this vast, remote and harsh region. While the Arctic is more conflict-free than many other regions, except perhaps for Antarctica, how well established is this pattern of cooperation, and how resilient will it be to major changes that the region is already experiencing or will likely experience in the coming decade?
This Perspective summarises the results of a 2017 tabletop exercise that examined factors that could potentially upset cooperation in the 2020 decade. Using a scenario-based approach, it focused on three potentially contentious areas: overlapping claims of Arctic nations regarding the extension of their continental shelves; increased maritime activity; and maritime incidents that could quickly escalate. This exercise yielded useful insights that confirmed the solidity of the cooperation model prevalent in the Arctic, but also identified potential ‘wildcards’ that could create tensions and make agreements and negotiated solutions more difficult to reach.