The Relationship between Climate Change and Violent Conflict
Publisher: Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency
Author(s): Johan Schaar
Date: 2018
Topics: Climate Change, Conflict Causes, Conflict Prevention, Governance, Programming
Countries: Sweden
There is no direct and linear relationship between climate change and violent conflict, but under certain circumstances climate-related change can influence factors that lead to or exacerbate conflict. Reduced access to water and extreme weather events may e g negatively affect food security and undermine the livelihoods of vulnerable households and communities. Growing natural resource scarcity may then lead to local competition which becomes unmanageable in the absence of institutions for conflict resolution. Fragile states and communities with a history of conflict are the most vulnerable. Migration that is influenced by climate-related events is predominantly domestic, not international. There is no evidence of interstate conflicts where climate change is a direct or indirect cause. But climate-related effects will grow in magnitude with consequences in space and time that are difficult to predict. To reduce the risk of conflict, policies and strategies need to consider the importance of good governance, interaction between sectors and policy areas, as well as unintended negative effects of climate adaptation or emission reductions, including those that influence land, water and forest tenure.
The report finds that Sida has not yet systematically applied integrated environment, climate change and conflict analyses, although interventions of relevance for the relationship between climate-related change and conflict are implemented in several countries and regions. The report also finds that Swedish development cooperation is well placed to address complex and unpredictable local events in view of the decentralization and delegation of aid decision-making to embassies and flexible, long-term funding. It is concluded that Swedish aid should take a broad and general approach to building community resilience, based on gender equality and promotion of human rights, combined with specific support to secure tenure and resolution of conflicts around land, forest and water, including transboundary water resources, while promoting disaster risk reduction in fragile and conflictual contexts. The report finally notes how organizational structure, the way of working and financing can further promote aid that contributes to reducing the risk of climate-related conflict.